March 01, 2005

• Wired did an interesting "what if?" piece on a devastating virus outbreak way back in 1995 for its "Scenarios" special issue. The whole feature was written up as an 2020-era interview with one of the researchers who eventually defeated the "Mao Flu" virus. A lot of Photoshopped graphics went along with the piece, which predicted bloated bodies in Kowloon Harbour, the quarantine of Lower Manhattan and the rise of protected enclave-states and biometric ID. It was the wedding picture that got me—a dustbowl picture with everyone in formal wear and gas masks. It scared the hell out of 13-year-old me. So, um, if that feature is anything to go by, a massively destructive avian flu pandemic will be nothing short of life-changing. But that's an extreme prediction based on an imagined virus with a 98% mortality rate. More likely is a scenario where lots of people die in developing nations and relatively few die in North America and Europe—and of those, many will be children and the elderly.
• The British Government will today be issuing our pandemic plans. I suspect they will be something along the lines of be scared, but don't worry, Tony'll protect you. I, however, am expecting a 'Shaun of the Dead' scenario, and am looking forward to smashing people's heads in with cricket bats. Or what chrominance said. Don't worry, our demographic will survive. Fuck-a-doodle-doo.
• Gallons and gallons of bottled water and as many Luna Bars as the local Trader Joe's can provide. And a tire iron. And smokes-- for trading, as cash, just like in the big house. Hey, and also learn how to build an electric generator out of household crap! (I've been reading "Safe Area Gorazde"in the crapper. Does funny things to ya...)
• Wash your hands?
• (snort) Never! The Lord purifies me daily with his Antibacterial Christ Salts. They exfoliate the deserving and excommunicate the blotchedy As is God's will.. I'm glowing right now, but that's because I cold-cocked a lesbian mom. Praise the Lord!
• I was here in Beijing during the SARS crisis. I have to say if you could ignore the fact that some poor sods were dying unpleasantly and unnecessarily it vastly improved the quality of my life. No cars on the streets, peaceful and sunny. I was chatting to the old lads who play chess on our street corner and they were saying how it was like their childhood again before the evil automobile began its fearsome assault on urban communities. I read that a combination of dense populations and a lack of iodine in the soil makes much of China a great disease incubator. Viruses also jump species easier where poor farmers live in close proximity to their livestock, so one practical step you can take as citizens of Western antions is keep voting for overseas aid budgets that will help improve the quality of life here. Its things like this that show we really are all in this human race thing together.
• if you want to check out the Wired article (sadly, no pictures) it's here.
• Reminds me of this
• You can stay home and watch The Stand on TV. Then go find a gun.....
• This is why we must KILL ALL THE BIRDS IN THE WORLD.
• oops shit sorry wrong thread
• chrominance, housepig: I remember that article. Scared the crap out of 14-year-old-me too. There were some other scary things in that magazine too. The news report about an India-Pakistan nuclear conflict with dirty bombs was freaky too. On the other hand, it made me realize that humans are pretty capable. That we will survive almost anything... I hope.
• 1958-1960 China underwent its Great Leap Forward. During the Great Leap the Communist Party began a massive 3-day campaign to exterminate sparrows, which were thought harmful because they ate the peasant's grain. Numerous other birds were killed in the process and insects soon became a problem. Great Leap Forward blows. Don't fuck with the birds.
• no kidding, moneyjane.
• It was the 1962 Slight Hop to the Left and Wiggle that really fucked us though.
• One of the best examples of the Monomaniacal Hokey Pokey ever.
• Perspective view: If a global epidemic kills 100 million people, that's only approximately 1.5% of the people on the planet. In terms of impact on humanity, not such a huge hit. 1.5%. Personal view: That sucks. That's a lot of people. In a global sense it will be worse in some areas, because the losses won't be spread evenly. In an ecological sense it won't have a huge effect on humanity... except for that thing we have, empathy, that makes it possible for us to imagine ourselves as one of the sick, dying, or bereaved. The tsunami death toll was about 1/4th of the predicted flu epidemic deaths, and we all know how much that disaster impacted us on a personal, "shit, that's awful, how can I help?" scale. If you want to make things better on a personal level, either get rid of your empathy so you don't care (not recommended unless you're happy as a serial killer) or send some cash to the World Health Organization or Red Cross/Red Crescent. Money can't fix everything but it's amazing how small an investment can make such a big impact in the hardest-hit areas.
• ...Oh, and for fuck's sake, stop raising chickens in penned enclosures akin to avian concentration camps, where they spend all damn day wallowing in feces and have no room to move because they're jammed so close together than any little virus immediately infects the whole friggin' building. That might help a wee bit. We're damn lucky in the western world that this bird-to-human virus jump didn't happen in a Tyson plant in the US rather than in Asia.
• I agree, clf! We got a factory chicken farm here a couple of years ago. Stinky bad place. It closed, but only because local citizens kept an eye on them and got the authorities to repeatedly bust them for breaking safety/environmental laws. I immediately started buying freerange, or doing without. Factory farms are a pandemic waiting to happen. They're perfect vector spaces. (is that the right word? Vector? I think so...)
• Oh, and my mom works for a doctor's office (bookkeeper), so she gets the weekly CDC email. She was a lot more sanguine about our chances in a big epidemic before this year's fiasco with the flu shots. (She even got a shot because she's a health care worker, but it was the wrong strain and she got the flu anyway.) Now she's fairly certain that individual doctors will do good work, but the needed organizational help from the government will be sketchy at best.
• I was buying a lot of staples anyways, but I think I'll buy more. I mean, if people aren't allowed in the streets and stores are closed, you're on your own and should be, I think, to let the powers that be take care of those already sick. How long, do you think the pandemic would be a threat in a specific area? I'd imagine it passes through multiple times, no? The 1918 edition lasted a year or so, and 28% of Americans caught it, with a mortality rate of 2.5%. Using the current US population of 295,573,052 at 28%, dividing that in half given better medical preparedness equals 41,380,227 sick and cutting the mortality rate by half as well, say 1.2% gives us 496,563 dead. (I think - my math skills are hideous). Canada = 4,400,120 sick and 53,989 dead. That's a lot of freakiness for emergency and logistical people to deal with.
• Duct tape and plastic sheeting...
• Skip the staples and buy paperclips, they hold much more.
• Oh sure...but paperclips won't fasten me securely to the walls in here so I don't run deliriously outside and bite people once The Change happens, will they, you smartypants you!
• I'm working on my record collection as I type. And finding a way to harness Zombie Power (TM).
• Though the duct tape sounds promising...
• And finding a way to harness Zombie Power (TM). 1) Hook up treadmill to generator, water pump, or ice cream maker. 2) Put zombie on treadmill (running zombies preferred to shuffling zombies). 3) Dangle brain from fishing pole in front of treadmill.
• Mmm, zombie-made ice cream.
• Just picture it like Mother Earth culling the herd. It's kinda like this guy and his chicken. See, doesn't it all make more sense now?
• That Wired article, with its' A-bombed Manhattan pic, rattled me a little, but basically felt to me like a 'prepare for the worst, expect..' idea. Hey, we were on our way to the 21st, flying cars and rocketpacks were on the verge to be unleashed on us by all those dot coms, so what could go wrong? Then... the second thing I recalled on 9/11, after convincing myself that no, it wasn't a bad movie, was that article. No, history wasn't over. In the event of an emergency and quarantine, I'm planning on stockpiling bottled water, some food and batteries. Could have access to some means of self-producing food, in the form of potted produce and vegetables, but I guess that's not a short-term solution. Mmhh. Would love to get a chicken for the eggs, but perhaps that's not a good idea...
• Maybe this time art can help us out.
• Is it ok to use my leftover y2k stockpiles for this? Eye Scream!!
• I'm starting now, because as soon as it's on - and it could be on simultaneously in any number of places given air travel - there's going to be some serious shelf-stripping, and those bastards with giant SUVs are going to load them up, and the carless, like me, are going to be gnawing on sticks. Remember - TOILET PAPER and crucial medication as well. I need to have a chat with my doctor who has insisted for the last two years on giving only a month's supply at a time of my medication. Filthy sod. I imagine having like a few day's worth left, and having to be bloody quarantined for two weeks or ? without my anti-depressants. Whoo! Party!
• Hell yeah flagpole! I'd corner the market on those suckers. They'd probably scare the crap out of the Z word too!
• What possible chance do we stand against fierce feathered flying foetid flocks of foes? Avian zombies would make things difficult.
• Fear
• What possible chance do we stand against fierce feathered flying foetid flocks of foes? Pow! Zap! Shpaklang! Zoink! SPLAT!!! Onomatopoeia smacks down alliteration, every time.
• God damn you are all worrying over nothing. That shits not going to happen. The only way something that bad will occur if if God decided to start Armageddon and then pretty much everyone here is going to get smitted anyway, you bunch of heathens.
• everyone here is going to get smitted anyway, you bunch of heathens. Well, there is that... Whoa...wait a minute... That shits not going to happen. Holy fucking crap, dude - you just jinxed the entire planet! Man, are you in trouble.
• How it all goes down depends on the incubation time and lethality of the pathogen. If it takes 2 weeks for an infected person to show signs, but they are contagious during that period, it doesn't matter if you live in the 3rd world or high society. Were all fucked then. There have been numerous studies that point out, because of air travel, that moderately infectious pathogens with a 7 day incubation time will only take about 3 months to hit every country. If the pathogen is 70% lethal, the best way to survive is to go hermit. If this situation arises, and you don't die, 7 out of 10 people you know will. If that happens, survival will be dependant on one's ability to be mercenary, with the price being your life. It sounds harsh because it is. Watch Night of the living Dead, Dawn of the Dead, and Day of the Dead. These are remarkably effective in showing how fast society dissapears in situations like these. They also show the collapse of authority for the duration of the crisis, and how insanity can affect the best of us in this environment. I don't trust the appropriate agencies to be able to identify and treat things like this in a timely manner. Myself, I would hide out for a few weeks just to make sure that the pathogen was controlled. It also gives enough time to seek out an "alternative lifestye" Heh, and I used to laugh at Mormons for having a "just in case" kit at the end of the bed.
• Also, Day of the Dead is nice and slimy.
• Whether this comes true or not, I love imaginary armaghetton scenarios.
• Armaghetton a beer.
• And no, you're not imagining that.
• The End Times has beer? Cool. I'm holding out for pie. Judgement Hellfire pie with Super Duper Freakout Sauce.
• The Tower of London has decided to keep its famous ravens indoors to protect them from bird flu.
• New infectious diseases are now emerging at an exceptional rate
• Large factory farms, not migratory birds, are now seen as breeding grounds for the avian flu virus.
• Fears of 'extreme' TB strain: New drug-resistant infection is 'nightmare' say health experts
• Factory Farms Fueling Avian Flu, Say Researchers
• Bird flu mutating to infect people more easily. Virus still has not transformed into pandemic strain, researchers say
• Ah, well. Will we all become were-chickens now?