November 09, 2004

Surprising results in Florida. Again. Did something fishy take place in Florida during the recent election? An analysis of registered voters versus actual results in Florida counties suggests some very surprising swings to the Republicans in the face of party registrations. In particular, the results for Libery are worrying, but by no means the only county where concern maybe warranted.
  • Sadly, it just won't matter. Probably.
  • Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh! No offence, planetthoughtful, but any more like this and I'm emigrating to Viewropa and marrying a Canadian. And Mrs P won't be happy about that.
  • I keep hearing about these Florida counties, and reading from many people that the results couldn't possibly be explained by registered Dixiecrats voting R, but no one ever seems to include the 2000 results from the same counties, which would presumably either be somewhat similar (but perhaps slightly better for the Dems) or wildly divergent. I'm a staunch Democrat, and would love to see some hard evidence on this, but these results aren't it.
  • Laugh, none taken Plegmund. I understand your frustration at the entire ordeal. That having been said, a transparent election process is fundamental to a notion of democracy, so perhaps it might make it easier for all concerned to think of this as being a natural part of that crucial process of transparency? Then again, it might not. And to aaronetc -- I agree that this isn't, in and of itself, close to incontrovertible evidence of any wrongdoing. But it may be the start of the gathering of such evidence (eg I understand this story was aired on MSNBC last night), or it may be the start of understanding and substantiating the voting patterns suggested by the results. My hope is that it isn't the start of wholesale 'it's better/easier to remain ignorant', but that's just a hope.
  • /uninformed-on-the-northamerican-election-system's-nuances-and-oddities rant I don't get it. Even with reports of irregularities coming out at non-tinfoil places, and the previous experience of fishy business, and the friends manning the counting machines, this just won't raise even a small controversy? The guy concedes when people have barely stopped voting, for the sake of 'the nation's wellbeing?' What's wrong with waiting a couple days, counting the frickin' last vote, and then add the figures? Everybody is just 'let's move on'. What? Options: 1)People couldn't care less, are jaded. Scary. 2)People *really* like what the guy in charge is doing. Their lives have improved under his mandate. Scarier still
  • The South ? We're talking about the South . And this surprises us?
  • The South ? We're talking about the South . And this surprises us?
  • You can get county-level 2000 returns from uselectionatlas.org . The counties most talked about are tiny little counties in cracker-land that went for Bush in 2000 too. Not as strongly as this time, but at a guess the increase is consistent with each party concentrating turnout efforts where they think it'll do them the most good. AFAICT, no Florida county has markedly different election results in 2004 from 2000. The only counties that flipped "winners" were Flagler, Hernando, Osceola, Pasco, and Pinellas, and they were all pretty close last time except for Pinellas, which was very close this time. All of them except maybe Pinellas also have a strong redneck / cracker component.
  • I hear Monica Lewinsky voted Republican, again. The Democrats really left a bad taste in her mouth.
  • Snap!
  • Aaronetc: Results from 2000 in same counties in same format http://ustogether.org/election04/FL2000.htm
  • /uninformed-on-the-northamerican-election-system's-nuances-and-oddities rant What do you mean North American? I assure you that this is a purely USian wierdness. :-)
  • *Pats self on back for being a THEM-ian rather than an USian.*
  • Nice one Skrik. Is that yours? I am going to go tell it to someone now.
  • I'm actually curious what the results were for those counties in the 1996 presidential election, and further back than that, before Jeb Bush was governor of Florida. Considering what happened in 2000, I'm not sure I'm inclined to trust those numbers as being an accurate reflection of the vote any more than I trust the 2004 stats. I would like to draw conclusions based on a clear, over-a-few-elections pattern of behavior rather than just what's happened on Jeb's watch. It's been shown Jeb has done much to ensure Florida's electoral votes went to his brother in both 2000 and 2004, and I'd just feel more confident in stats from (hopefully) less biased elections. It *does* seem fishy that these highly Democratic counties would go in such overwhelming numbers for Bush, but the "Dixiecrat" theory may well be viable if a long-term pattern can be shown.
  • Silly monkeys. Democracy is far to important to be decided by the electorate.
  • ^too
  • Yes and no, mecurious. Bush won by several MILLION votes. True, Kerry may actually have come closer than we know currently, and that's a fucking crime. But the majority of Americans, we now know, are science-denying, tall-tale-believing, racism-and-sexism-tinged bully-at-heart morons (or are at least sympathetic enough with same to vote for them). The Repubs won the presidency, AND they won seats in both houses of Congress. We should follow through on the vote-fraud investigations with righteous intensity, but we should not lose track of that fact.
  • It *does* seem fishy that these highly Democratic counties would go in such overwhelming numbers for Bush Nup. Y'all yankees and foreigners just ain't never dealt with crackers and rednecks before. Voting and registration mismatches like this are common in the rural white South. They've been registering Democratic since the Civil War ended, but most of these counties haven't voted for a Democratic president more than once since 1960. Most of the counties in question went for Dole in 96, but that election was "contaminated" by 8--15% of people voting for Perot, drawn primarily from Republican ranks, and Clinton was, as you might have noticed, a good Southern boy. So that one is hard to figure.
  • Alex, thanks for the 'Dear Liberals' linkage, I really needed that. For those who haven't read it yet, go give it a peek.
  • Nice link, Alex Reynolds. The whole Christianity = conservatism thing is one of my pet peeves. If you take a look at Jesus' Sermon on the Mount, which is pretty much the Constitution of Christianity, you can't help but conclude that modern-day Republicans are pretty much ANTI-Christian. That's right -- again and again, in policy after policy, on issue after issue, the Republicans do the opposite of trying to emulate Jesus and follow his teachings. There's ammunition there for progressives who want to actually speak to the beliefs of the dumb-as-fuck redneck melon-heads who populate the red states. (Sorry about that last part, but I never said I'm trying to emulate Jesus.)
  • Southerners aren't so much xtian as they are Saharasian.
  • i keep getting e-mails from news consumers FURIOUS that this "isn't being covered" in the "mainstream media." it is, really it is. i did a nexis search on the phrase "voter fraud," and IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE more than 1,000 stories were written in newspapers, magazines, newsletters and wire services. so this is indeed being investigated.
  • joins Plegmund ... oh wait I live here. My quick, partially informed 1.84 cents (converted to the USD). Until Americans have a voting system that can be seen as being tamper proof and non partisan this will always be an issue. I shake my head at provisional votes and challengers. America should follow Australias lead and come here to see how we do it :) When we vote here a ballot is handed to us - a paper one where we mark X's - no worry of pregnant chads, hanging chads or electronic voting here. When we have filled out our ballot WE put the ballot in the ballot box. It's unthinkable to allow someone else to handle them. We register to vote and if you forgot to register - too bad - try again next time. We don't wait 2 weeks to count absentee ballots. We don't allow someone to transfer transfer ballots in a vehicle with a Bush/Cheney 2004 sticker on the back window and would be unthinkable to transfer them to another party without a signature (thinking of some of the things relating to the Ohio vote) And what is this BS I keep hearing about having to announce your political affiliation in order to vote? geez people that is some fucked up.
  • Nah, Goodnitemush, it's four years old. I recycled it.
  • beeza - you forgot to mention that if you check a box on your income tax return, your info is automatically sent to Elections Canada to register to vote. Couldn't be simpler.
  • America should follow Australias lead and come here to see how we do it I wonder where the voting booth was invented?
  • As beeza said, except to add that in Canada, you can even register to vote on election day if you have proof of residence and government ID. Seriously. And I don't think the complexity of the ballot should be an issue—if it's that difficult to count votes for seventeen races and eight different propositions, then don't do it all on one day. I mean, you have mid-term elections, so you already know how to split up when to vote for specific positions. Why you people outsource voter registration to private companies, I have absolutely no clue.
  • Not really surprising. After the 2000 election, I just assumed Bush would win in 2004 by a rigged election, Supreme Court appointment or declaration of martial law. Once you cross the line he has, nothing is impossible.
  • SideDish - it seems to me at least that this is still in the realm of the blogosphere and less prevalent written media vs. the all-encompassing television, and that's why people are complaining. I haven't seen anything on CNN - then again I haven't really been looking - but look at Kos, MeFi, Devoter, here, Wonkette, et al, and every other post seems to be about vote fraud. And if it isn't on TV, it isn't real, right?
  • rocket88 didn't forget. Was part of my original post and edited it out along with a bunch of other information. I had the molsons 'i am canadian' commerical going through my head as I was writing it and impeded the flow of words ... heh) I agree having the option on our tax forms makes things so much simpler.