November 02, 2004

• Dixville Notch results (11 registered Republicans, 2 registered Democrats and 13 independents) Bush over Democratic challenger John Kerry by a margin of 19 to 7. In the 2000 election, Dixville Notch voted Bush 21, Gore 5 and Nader 1.
• It's funny, isn't it mercurious, how only today we are seeing polling reportage and commentary that admits that Bush is in deep trouble (as opposed to him leading)? In the threads here and on MeFi about election predictions, while there's been a few of us who have point-by-point explained why Kerry was quite likely to win this election and why it's been obvious for months, the greater opinion has always been that Bush is way ahead and likely to win. I've said that all these folks were going to be surprised come election day, but I'm wondering if they're already being surprised since Sunday. Are they thinking, "Whoa! What changed so suddenly??" Well, nothing. Nothing changed, really.
• With apologies to "O Brother Where Art Thou" (sound warning- mp3 clip): Karl Rove: "We need a shot in the arm. You hear me boys? In the goddamn arm! Election held tomorrw, that son of bitch Stokes would win it in a walk!" George W. Bush: "Well' he's the reform candidate, Daddy." Karl Rove: "Yeah." George W. Bush: "A lot of people like that reform. Maybe we should get us some." Karl Rove: "I'll reform you, you soft-headed son of a bitch. How we gonna run reform when we're the damn incumbent? Is that the best idea you boys can come up with? Reform?! Weepin' jesus on the cross. That's it! You may as well start drafting my concession speech right now." Rove's Staff: "Okay, Pappy." Karl Rove: "I,m just making a point you stupid son of a bitch. Give me back that hat! Hurry up!" Roves's Staff: "Pappy's just makin' a point." Karl Rove: "Shut up!"
• ElectionFilter
• My stomach hurts, I'm so anxious. If any night is the night to take that last barbituate and drink hard liquor, tonight's it.
• I don't want to make too much of such a small sample size, but it is interesting to note the drop in support for Bush from 2000 to 2004 in each of the midnight voting NH towns: Hart's Location Bush 2000: 56.6% Bush 2004: 50.0 _______________ a drop of 6.6% in support for Bush Dixville Notch Bush 2000: 80.8% Bush 2004: 73.1% ________________ a drop of 7.7% in support for Bush A drop of even A QUARTER of that much nationwide would be disasterous for Bush. A drop of HALF that would mean a very early concession speech indeed. We shall see...
• Good lord mecurious; I bet you spend a lot of time over at DailyKos. I have two wishes for election day: First: may whoever wins win by a clear margin. Second: that the day ends with a concession speech by one of the two major candidates. I have a feeling though that I am hoping for way too much. Does anyone want to start a pool for the date when we will actually know who the President will be?
• in the threads here and on MeFi about election predictions, while there's been a few of us who have point-by-point explained why Kerry was quite likely to win this election... kmellis: thanks for noticing. The defeatism among the left is a major pet peeve with me. I dont see any chance of Bush winning tomorrow. Not that he can't win, but he needs OH and FL and if he wins them it will be tied up in recounts and lawsuits. The votes simply arent there- there is no possible group I know of that would give Bush a push over what he has in the virtually tied polls. Personally, I see a huge turnout of new voters and those considered "not likely" by the pollsters- and that helps Kerry. This isnt a typical election.
• Good lord mecurious; I bet you spend a lot of time over at DailyKos No, I visited it (briefly) for the first time just the other day. I will admit to spending more than a little time at electoral-vote.com and the LA Times interactive map, however. It is possible for ordinary people to come to logical conclusions on their own without simply parroting others.
• i'm with sbutler. i'm getting together with friends tonight because we just couldn't be alone! damn this is nerve-wracking. and to our overseas monkey pals, thank you for putting up with all the election chatter of late. i hope things will settle down once we have a winner. next february.
• Good lord mecurious; I bet you spend a lot of time over at DailyKos Look, mecurious admits to spending more than a little time at electoral-vote.com and the LA Times interactive map. But the important thing is, it is possible for ordinary people to come to logical conclusions on their own without simply parroting others.
• coming back to mecurious's example: Hart's Location = a drop of 6.6% in support for Bush Dixville Notch = a drop of 7.7% in support for Bush can this be extrapolated as representative of new hampshire? if so, let's err on the side of caution and say there's an overall drop of 5% in bush's support statewide. recall the previous election results for new hampshire: bush 48.2 percent gore 46.9 percent ka-ching, four electoral votes for kerry...
• I have to tell you that the two Democratic voters in Dixville Notch are friends of ours. It's always amusing to watch the media coverage of the primary voting there, since Donna and Rick are usually the first two people to vote. I blogged about it back in January. If the link in the blog post is still active, you can see some video of them.
• I voted already this morning. Took me a little less than an hour. Now I'll spend the rest of the day biting my nails and playing horror games of "what if" in my head. BTW, catch the oblique endorsement of Kerry by Jon Stewart last night? He didn't name names, but he encouraged his viewers to go out and vote, however long it took, and "to make [his] job HARD for a change." God, Kerry's just GOT to win. If he doesn't.... I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.
• Hart's Location
• TenaciousPettle - if (god forbid) kerry doesn't win... there's always this...
• quidnunc kid: you either aren't aware of what electoral-vote.com has been showing for months or know what the LA Times interactive map is. Perhaps you also missed this thread. It was not a popular view when I made my assertion, though the media stories have certainly been blowing a different direction since that time. I'm not the only one on the planet who interpreted the data they way I did, but I didn't read anybody putting it all together before I did (not that there weren't any, but I wasn't aware of them). The polls (particularly Gallup) just don't reflect the percentages you are going to see reported tonight. Gallups huge swing in recent days is just an attempt to make themselves look less foolish than they already will. I'm standing by my previous assertion that this election will be decided by the young-slash-"unlikely voters". They are the ones making those lines extra-long today and they will break strongly for Kerry. They weren't counted on in the polls that you have been seeing (the ones calling it "a toss-up"). Anybody see the Republican guy on Nightline last night? He practically conceded the election!
• Umm, mecurious my friend, I meant that not as a jibe against you and I am truly sorry it may have been read that way. I was just playing on your "it is possible for ordinary people to come to logical conclusions on their own without simply parroting others" by parroting you shamelessly. It was meant to be read as your typical "quidnunc = moron" funny funny ha ha. Squawk! I thought your analysis was a very interesting one by a person for more educated in these matters than me. I wasn't (intending to) knock it at all - I'm sorry it didn't read that way, please except my apologies for my poor comment skillz and 1 beer at location of your choice. What say you?
• I thought your analysis was a very interesting one by a person far more educated in these matters than me ... Also I cannot spell. *grovels in shame*
• quidnunc kid: (In my best Emily Litella voice) "Nevermind"! : )
• Good, quidnunc like happy happy fun times. I'll raise a glass especially for your election day health at the pub tonight, mecurious.
• "I have never witnessed such energy among those under 30". "The signs have been all around us, but still the experts seem to want to deny the obvious."
• (FYI all, i'll post polling stuff as i receive it in the THE BIG FAT THREAD FOR THE ELECTIONS)
• Well I'm posting all over the place! : ) Here is one guy who apparently figure it out early: Jimmy Breslin (his final column?). A must read.
• Damn good article. Damn good. Every US monkey who votes, gets a lunch/dinner on me next time he/she comes to UK! That's a promise!
• Just don't uh...all ya come at once, ok?
• Man, I am gonna be so drunk no matter what happens tonight.
• scratch that. I am allready plasterd.
• There should be some locker-room smacktalk going on right now. I know I've brought this up before in regards to other things, but Bush and Kerry should be wearing wrestling unitards and making unsubtle threats (preferably ones that rhyme) while Mean Gene Okerlund points a mike at them. Then at one point Kerry would grab the mike out of Okerlund's hand and get up reeeeeeally close in the camera and mutter "It'll be curtains for you in the cage, bitch. Curtains. Game over, sweetheart."
• As quidnunc points out, mecurious admits to spending more than a little time at electoral-vote.com and the LA Times interactive map. But the important thing is, it is possible for ordinary people to come to logical conclusions on their own without simply parroting others.
• It is also possible to come to logical conclusions without garroting others. Indeed, *chokes, dies*