October 31, 2004

Curious George - Online bookies. I want to place a bet on Kerry winning the election. But I've never bet on anything before, and the online bookies I've been finding that are running books on the US election are a bit initimidating and confusing.

A bit of research has yielded this at oddschecker, which I am completely confused about. What do all these numbers mean? Really, I just want to place something like 100 smackers on K-dog winning. Any advice?

  • Hell, I'm in Vegas right now. Whatcha need?
  • Read this. As for your hundred dollars, I really think they'd be better spent trying to get the vote out for the K-dog in any way you think you can. This race is too close to call so it's a small-time bet either way. But every vote in this election counts like a million dollars. So go buy some votes. :-)
  • I'm workin' the phone bank Tuesday. Any other monkey's doing their share?
  • monkeys
  • Are you calling swing states? I feel kind of bad I'm not doing more... I signed up as a "mystery voter" to help monitor the polls but I think whatever happens here in Cali. is kind of irrelevant as Bush has no chance.
  • Good for you squidranch! Take some uppers and have a manic day! It's all for the good! I live in Canada and I am afraid to call my four half-siblings in the States. Two live in North Carolina, one in Virgina and one in Florida. Steph in Florida might be worth it, but I don't know what county she lives in. I'm afraid that any one or all of them might vote for Bush and I really have no grounds beyond guts to advise them to vote for Kerry. I am an American citizen who has always lived in Canada. I really don't know and it is hard. At least I've cast my vote in Arizona. Thanks for reminding me! This will take some thought and tact.
  • I'm not even putting money on myself to win. But thanks for your faith.
  • I'm going to do something called "poll running." I don't know what it involves, other than driving around to various polling places, picking up some sort of information, taking it back to the county's Dem. HQ, and then going out to more polling places. I'll figure it out Monday :)
  • Yep, calling swing states. Can anyone out there still justify the electoral college to me? I live in California and in national elections my state is pretty much off the radar due to this thingamajiggy from the 18th century. For god sake, I got CNN and the internets. I know what's going on, and so to people across this great land. Let's put this baby to bed!
  • Are any Las Vegas casinos running bets on the elections, or is that illegal?
  • Fellas, fellas... www.wsex.com There's even a derivatives market there.
  • Any other monkey's doing their share? Been banking it for a couple of months now, but unfortunately this week I've lost my voice. I'll still be driving people to polls in the afternoon on Tuesday. About the EC, there is no rational justification for its continued existence. I assume you already reject the standard historical checks-and-balances argument that it is a compromise designed to allow the less-populated states some non-trivial say in political matters. Even some modest reform such as proportional representation (by district, +2 for the party with the most votes) would change the nature of American politics significtantly: by evening out the field for third parties, for instance. I personally am in favour of million-party coalition governments for the simple reason that it keeps them busy back-stabbing each other instead of waging wars or messing with education or any such nonsense. Most Americans are, however, by design clones of their founding fathers. They are very unlikely to prefer such coalitions. They look at places like Italy, where the government is perpetually on the verge of collapse, and see only chaos. Thus, the two-party system, and thus no interest in electoral reform.
  • Any other monkey's doing their share? I've been canvassing a few times. Tip for others doing canvassing: Make sure the street you are on is the same street on your canvassing sheet. It makes it much easier to find the addresses. I'm a dumbass.
  • If you're looking for an online bookmaker, may I recommend Betfair which is a British betting exchange? A betting exchange differs from a traditional bookmakers outfit, because it allows you to bet against fellow users (rather than the bookie). Therefore, as the customer sets the prices, you will often find better odds. Betting exhanges use decimal odds too, which makes it easier to work out your potential winnings. If you go to Betfair right now, you'll see that the Democrats have odds of 2.34 of winning the election. This means that if you place a bet of $100 and the Dems win, you will get a return of $234. That's your $100 stake and winnings of $134. Similarly the Republicans have odds of 1.72. This means a $100 bet would return a sum of $172. It's much easier to work out than the fractional odds that traditional bookies use. There are plenty of other exchanges too, but I think Betfair has the least confusing website and it's easy to place a bet if you're new to gambling.
  • afx237vi: perfect, that's exactly what I needed. I think I'll place on betfair this evening. Argh: what are the odds like on the election in vegas? you seeing alot of people taking/placing bets on it?
  • What are the odds on mass protest on Wednesday, regardless of who wins?
  • If I believed in omens I'd place a bet on Kerry. The Packers won tonight and the DOW Jones Index fell .52% in October but then again a vote among school aged children shows Bush winning (60% for Bush).
  • ian would say Dunno..I'll find out tomorrow fer ya.