October 21, 2004

• Shit. Poor old chap.
• I love Castro. Always have. Are other monkeys aware that the crazy bastard routinely makes unscripted speeches that last HOURS at a time? He still does that to this day. He will do it in full uniform at the age of 78 in blistering heat. Can you imagine a US President making an unscripted speech at all, much less one that runs several hours in length? I have never heard one of his entire speeches, and I cannot say that I really desire to. But I have to respect the man for doing that. The man will be making speeches from the dead someday.
• When he dies, I expect the CIA to ramp up their efforts to destablilize the country. And there will be MUCH bloodshed.
• I don't know about that rocket88. Seems to me that the Castro regiem is based on a cult of personality and I'm not too sure who has the cojenes to fill Castro's boots. He certainly hasn't been grooming anyone specificall to replace him And on top of that, they're pretty much a free market ecomomy right now anyway. The way I see it is that his brother and the others behind the scenes will "see the folly of their ways" and cave into yankee dollars within weeks of Castro's demise.
• within weeks of Castro's demise I predict two days.
• Doubt it, squidranch: the US has effectively reamined entrenched in a position that would see a lock, stock, and barrel return to pre-Castro democracy; ie rule by US backed thugs and gangsters. Castro's regime is pretty unpleasant (most especially so if you happen to have unapproved opinions), but if your choices are "dictators who oppress you but get most people trinkets" (in the form of literacy, healthcare, etc), and "dictators in democratic fancy dress who give you four-fifths of fuck all", the former starts looking like a decent option.
• U.S. policy towards Cuba is insane and counterproductive, but Castro is still a nasty dictator. The strides in health care have mostly vanished since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of what Castro calls "the special period." Now they have doctors, but no drugs or even band aids. I taught a university course on Castro's Cuba and have been there twice. The poverty just outside the tourist areas is heartbreaking, and as bad as anything you see anywhere in Latin America. Castro blames this on the embargo, but the fact is that Cuba trades freely with the whole world except the U.S., they just don't have anything to trade, and so can't buy anything in return. My overwhelming impression was that the Cuban people are mostly waiting for Castro to die so relations with the U.S. will normalize and they can form business partnerships with their relatives in Miami. CIA intervention will not be necessary. Still, a post-Castro Cuba could be a bigger problem for the U.S. than a communist one if things go badly. If Cuba slides into anarchy is it easy to imagine the Columbian drug lords moving in and ruling swaths of the Cuban hinterland. Cuba would be an insanely great place from which to smuggle drugs into the U.S. By the way, if any of you Monkeys have a chance to go to Cuba do so right away. It is a unique place in all the world, outside of the currents of globalization, with 1950s cars and tropical beauty and a vibrant friendly people and the most amazing crumbling architecture. I do not want to romanticize Cuba, it is a hard hard place to live, but it is like no where in the world, and the Cuba that exists now will be swept away in the blink of an eye when Castro dies.
• I'm not saying that it would be clean or honest. I also predict a return to mafiosi and junta rule, but once Fidel is pushing up daisies, the whole government is going to sell out to the highest bidder. It will be far from a socialist government. Since the US has isolated and treated the whole of the Cuban people (excluding the republican ones in Miami) like crap, I suspect that even more nefarious creeps than the CIA will get in and be the firstest with the mostest.
• BTW, of ol' Fidel should die from this fall (and I doubt he will) watch Bush?Cheney take credit for it. I betcha!
• Bush/Cheney
• Cuba's a beautiful place. Too bad the hardships its' population have had to endure. And the lure of tourist dollars & euros has had a devastating effect on the young population. Not that I'd behave differently, I'm afraid... Once had a chat with someone well-informed on the caribbean scene, and he told me how all kind of syndicates and mafiosi are just waiting for Castro to leave the stage in order to win the control of the island. He's already in some deals with questionable characters like a corrupt mexican ex-president, and it certainly doesn't look the transition period is gonna be a nice time. Hope the poeple there can get control of their future, for once.
• Fidel Castro broke his knee. Retirement ahead? Naw, He goes onto the Dictator's D/L. He'll just sit out the rest of the season. Go into rehab, maybe do some Dictating in the minors and be back in time for next season.
• Post-Castro Cuba could turn really ugly, but there are also reasons for optimism. Unlike the former Soviet Union, they do have a political tradition of contesting political parties and elections, though it was always fairly corrupt. The very large black market, much of it based around tourism, has given many Cubans a taste of capitalism. There are 300,000 Cuban Americans in Florida, financially successful and with access to capital, who can serve as a bridge between Cuba and the U.S. Cuba could be an incredible tourist destination. And most of all, a stable, capitalist and democratic Cuba is very much in U.S. financial and foreign policy interests. Before the Revolution, Cuba had the highest per capita income in Latin America, though wretchedly distributed. Ten years after Castro Cuba could be the model of Latin America--or a mafia paradise. It could go either way.
• I'd love to go LarryC, and just might, but hasn't this administration made it even harder to go (legally) than it was before? I have toyed around with taking a plane down to Mexico City and hopping on a plane to Havana. I'm just waiting to land a big job and I'm there.
• Squid, yeah, Bush has made it much tougher to go to Cuba--legally. But tens of thousands of Americans go anyway, the way you describe, through Veracruz, or Cancun, or Montreal (tons of Canadians in Cuba, the main Cuban beer is actually Molson in disguise) or the Bahamas. Very few get caught, but if you do it is an $8000 fine, which I hear can be negotiated down to about $2000. If you get that job, go to the Cuba Travel board at Lonelyplanet.com before you go, know what your rights are and have a strategy in case you do get caught on your way back into the U.S. The basic rule is to deny everything and sign nothing, but the immigration officials will lie to you outright to get a confession. I went legally because I was leading students, but even that loophole is almost completely closed as of a few months ago. Bush has even cracked down on Cuban Americans, who used to be able to go down to Cuba whenever they wanted with wads of cash and bags full of goodies for their relatives. Funny thing is, a lot of Cuba watchers believe that Castro only pretends to want the embargo lifted, but really wants it to stay so as to have an excuse for the failings of his regime.
• I wish that the US would just get it through its thick fucking skull that the best way to undermine Castro is to lift the fucking embargo. I mean, shit, we deal with China, and they're worse. We deal with Saudi Arabia, and they're worse. Cuba's revolutionary consciousness has been undermined by decades of authoritarian rule, with the boogyman of the Yanquis hovering over to prevent real reform. I hate to be such a Jimmy Carter about it, but damn. Let 'em have US goods. Let 'em have US entertainment. Let us buy their goods. You'd see Castro crumble in a week. We'd just have to take pains to not let them turn into another Haiti.
• bernockle - maybe there's a reason US Presidents don't give 3-hour unscripted speeches - they might end up dead.
• Broke his knee? No doubt he'll have it arrested, imprisoned and executed but we won't hear about it.
• LarryC - Thank you for sharing with us your knowledge of Cuba. So much of what I hear is either all-pro Castro or all pro-US policy. I've never been able to reconcile the two sides, but your comments have at least given me a little more understanding of the issue.
• LarryC, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!! Wonderful to hear your descriptions of Cuba. If only I could! I would be there in a heartbeat. You describe it exactly the way I imagine it. I have yet to hear anyone, who's been there, say that they have not fallen completely in love with it. BTW, slightly off-topic, did anyone see "Before Night Falls"? Lovely, albeit sad ending, film with lush visions of Cuba slightly before and during the Revolution.
• Much more effective than exploding cigars: just push him.
• JS, Cuban exiles in the US vote for the candidate who is toughest on Cuba. Why, I don't know; most exiles still have relatives in Cuba, so they're voting for their continued hardship. Anyway, that's the reason for America's st00pid policy towards Castro.
• Skirk is right, US Cuba policy is dictated by the Cuban exile community in the swing state of Florida. Even most Republicans do not support U.S. policy towards Cuba. In fact farm state Repulicans have been major backers of legislation to end the embargo (they think the Cubans are going to buy all their excess pork bellies--a fantasy, but nevermind), and such legislation has passed both houses the last 3 years running. Each time Bush has it killed in committee. Recently though cracks have appeared in the Florida Cuban community, with most of the younger, American-barn people favoring dropping the embargo. I think the embargo will go away after Bush, which let us hope is not far off.
• Well, LarryC, this is some coincidence...I'm leaving in a few hours for Cuba, to cycle round the island with five friends for three weeks. I'm still not sure whether this is a sane idea for a holiday, but one thing is certain, it will be memorable.
• Wow, Skeptic! Have a fantastic time! Take lot's of pictures and post them for us!
• Well. This wouldn't happen to ye, Fidel, if ye'd just wear your lucky socks when ye deliver these impromtu talks.
• Rove did it.
• in praise of cartilage hollows cradle knobs cupping bone on bone so bended knee crooked elbow clack of jaw can be