September 29, 2004

• iirc, the bills (both senate and house versions) are sponsored by democrats. come on, get real. a draft is Political Suicide.
• Here is some of an email I got about this today: " VERY IMPORTANT!!!! This affects us all! Mandatory military draft for boys and girls (ages 18-26) starting June 15, 2005, is something that everyone should know about. This literally effects everyone since we all have or know children that will have to go if this bill passes. There is pending legislation in the house and senate (companion bills: S 89 and HR 163) which will time the program's initiation so the draft can begin as early as spring 2005, just after the 2004 presidential election. The administration is quietly trying to get these bills passed now, while the public's attention is on the elections, so our action on this is needed immediately. Details and links follow. This plan, among other things, eliminates higher education as a shelter and includes women in the draft. Also, crossing into Canada has already been made very difficult. Actions: Please send this on to all the parents and teachers you know, and all the aunts and uncles, grandparents, godparents. . . And let your children know - - it's their future, and they can be a powerful voice for change! This legislation is called HR 163 and can be found in detail at this website: http://thomas.loc.gov/ . Just type in HR 163 in the left search box. Just enter in "HR 163" and click search and it will bring up the bill for you to read. It is less than two pages long. If this bill passes, it will require all men and ALL WOMEN from ages 18 - 26 to participate in a draft for military action. In addition, college will no longer be an option for avoiding the draft and they will be signing an agreement with Canada which will no longer permit anyone attempting to dodge the draft to stay within its borders. This bill also includes the extension of military service for all those that are currently active. If you go to the select service web site and read their 2004 FYI Goals you will see that the reasoning for this is to increase the size of the military in case of terrorism. This is a critical piece of legislation, this will affect our undergraduates, our children and our grandchildren. The pentagon has quietly begun a public campaign to fill all 10,350 draft board positions and 11,070 appeals board slots nationwide. Though this is an unpopular election year topic, military experts and influential members of congress are suggesting that if Rumsfeld's prediction of a "long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan (and permanent state of war on terrorism) proves accurate, the U.S. may have no choice but to draft."
• Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha! It is so funny to watch Dems/liberals/"progressive" get so scared about this. If I thought that there was any chance at all of a draft being reinstated in America, my blood would boil...but I honestly don't believe that this will ever come to pass. Relax, everyone.
• kamus, you should just delete that fear-mongering e-mail - it's no better than any other "send this to all your friends!" crap that circulate all the time. Because this one is so very "topical" and (if true) would impact so many people, it likely will get plenty of traction among the AOL set, however.
• "come on, get real. a draft is Political Suicide." Exactly my point- if Kerry can force GWB to admit that he'll have to do something along these lines to "stay the course" then that could be some effective ammo for him. As far as the bill being sponsored by democrats, you are correct. The bill was introduced, rather cynically, by two black congressmen who, noting the disproportionate number of minorities serving in Iraq introduced this bill as a way to level the playing field somewhat. Thing is, a persistent rumor has it that Bushco plans to push this thing the moment the post election smoke clears.
• Oh, not concerned about the draft, are we? Well, if you don't SHUT THAT FUCKING WINDOW, mister, we'll all catch our deaths! Honestly, some people.
• Sorry. That may have been a misunderstanding.
• No! Not the draft! For the love of God, Montresor!
• davidmsc doesn't it warrant discussion just because the possibilty exists that it might be true? Just because it's too horrible to contemplate, do we just turn away? America's military is currently stretched to the braking point- what if something happens with N.Korea, Syria, Afghanistan,or Iran? What if some further situation arises that we cannot forsee at the moment? What will the military do for troops? And did you bother to check out the www.bushdraft.com link, or did you just summarily dismiss it as "fearmongering"?
• that bill is going to go down in flames. the draft is beyond wildly unpopular. anyone who voted for it would be out. any party responsible for it would suffer for decades. who is behind it?
• from Snopes (via the old MoFi thread on this topic)
• Could somebody get round to quoting that Simpsons line about needing another Vietnam and have done with it? There's an election happening in under two weeks, you know.* *Australian, yes, but they have real people there too. Allegedly.
• *allegedly shakes fist at alleged northern hemisphere*
• I was going to share this with others, but why are all the copies on the Senate and House pages dated like "January 2003" with no significant action noted? S. 85 Latest Major Action: 1/7/2003 Referred to Senate committee. H. R. 108 Latest Major Action: 2/3/2003 House committee/subcommittee actions. Isn't this old news?
• *allegedly cowers, refuses to allegedly tour Zimbabwe in protest at unnecessary alleged fisting.*
• Oops H.R. 163, not H.R. 108, right bill nevertheless.
• *is allegedly drafted by Robert Mugabe*
• Alleges something, unsure what. Probably Anti-American, knowing what the current political climate is like. Oooh, lawks a mercy. Apologises for allegedly acting on incorrect information in derailing thread, cannot in all sincerity bring self to apologise for actual derailing of thread.*
• kamus: i looked at bushdraft.com. i find any website with a bunch of broken links, obviously disingenuous information (no mention of democratic sponsors of the bill - it's all about bush) and a donation page (that claims running that website is expensive) way beyond highly suspect.
• No-one has answered my question- what does America do in the face of another military commitment forced upon it?
• *allegedly nips up pub, returns with alleged nectar*
• What does America do in the face of another military commitment forced upon it? Dunno about America, but Americans can: a. enlist/volunteer b. evade c. protest d. leave the country e. find ways to make themselves ineligible f. age really really fast
• (assuming a draft is put in place...)
• Humble- Since Bush got us into this mess, why shouldn't it be about him. Also, the links to the bills clearly state who the sponsors are. Are you seriously suggesting that if a site has broken links and a donation page then none of the content on it canbe taken seriously? How do you interpret the doubling of the selective service system's budget for instance- a figure pulled from the actual gov't website and linked to at Bushdraft.com?. Honestly, I'm not trying to be an alarmist here, but I though that a subject this important would elicit some serious discussion. Not juvenile dismissals, and wishful thinking that it can't happen. If you don't think it can happen, say why (besides the political suicide argument-this is all supposed to go down after the election, remember?) Or are we incapable of an intelligent discussion on this matter?- if so, just say so.
• *allegedly shakes Mugabe's hand but only because the room is dark*
• ...and hence our foreign secretary can't, er, distinguish between black men...*
• Well, perhaps you can lead the way to the intelligent debate by telling us what you mean by 'military commitment forced upon' America. Do you mean BushCo starting a new front in their so-called War on Terror? How likely do you think this will happen before January? How likely is Bush to win in November? And even if Bush wins, will he be allowed to start any more vanity wars? Also, if there is a good reason to go to war, do you think a draft is justified?
• *allegedly raises fresh allegations*
• I think there'd be less opposition to a draft than many think. I'm pretty liberal and I'd favor it, assuming that the holes that allowed a lot of privileged people avoid it in the past were plugged.
• "Well, perhaps you can lead the way to the intelligent debate by telling us what you mean by 'military commitment forced upon' America. Do you mean BushCo starting a new front in their so-called War on Terror? " I don't think Bush will seek out anything anytime soon-he has his hands full but he may be forced into something: North Korea remains a flashpoint. Iran remains a flashpoint and has threaten Israel with a missile counterattack in the event of a US/Israeli preemptive strike against their reactor program.. Afghanistan is barely under control and divisive elections are nearing with the Taliban on the resurgence. After Powell's declaration of "Genocide" in Darfur, we may have to back our words up with military action. The situation in Iraq may worsen- remember many military analysts, John McCain included, claim that we currently have insufficient troops as it is. "How likely do you think this will happen before January?" Not likely at all, but Kerry could press Bush on these possibilities, force him to admit (well of course he wouldn't) that he would have to do something drastic about insufficient troop levels and tie that to his irresponsible diversion of resources away from Afghanistan to the very questionable action in Iraq. "How likely is Bush to win in November?" Sadly, it's looking good for the chimp- but it's still winnable for Kerry "And even if Bush wins, will he be allowed to start any more vanity wars?" He can do whatever he wants-after all, this time he'll have a mandate!
• What on earth do you mean by: "but I though that a subject this important would elicit some serious discussion. Not juvenile dismissals, and wishful thinking that it can't happen." What discussion? I oppose the draft, for moral and practical reasons, and I don't believe that we will see a military draft in our lifetimes. What more "discussion" do you want? Seriously - do you want a dissertation on the nations that *have* implemented a draft, and the subsequent impact on the socio-economic levels of middle-income households that have 2 cars? I'm all ears.
• BTW, I'm glad to see that you're so interested in a discussion, even referring to the President as a "chimp" in order to stimulate debate. /snark
• I started to doubt Snopes reliability regarding Bush when I went there looking for some info on his cokehead days. Snopes has remained quite on the subject. Their usual method is to confirm, refute, or claim "we don't really know." But when it comes to Bush, their method seems to be either refute, or remain silent when refutation not possible. Maybe I'm wrong, that's just the impression I get trying to lookup up some of the many rumors about Bush.
• fuyugare: You missed (g) explain an interest in same-sex fucking. Hell, it's so trendy with the gals these days hardly any woman under 30 must be eligible! (How do they test this, anyway? I mean, if everyone recruited in California announced, "I'm gayer than a treeful of Stephen Fry on nitrous", do they start demanding pictures or what?) And david, your assumptions that there will be no need for a draft are based on what, wishful thinking? It's not like the present administration are renowned for listening to the advice of their senior millitary or diplomatic people. What's to stop a re-elected team with "the best defence secretary the US has ever had" deciding to try for Syria and Iran? Do you imagine that the present level of US and National Guard forces could sustain an occupation of Iran?
• The draft bill is just a smokescreen, blah blah blah, not going to happen, people have said it before, next subject please. So I hear there's an election in Australia soon. Please, tell me more.
• rodgerd: They do say that some countries with compulsary military service learn to accept gays in the military quit quickly. (I heard something to this effect about Israel - I also believe that women there are subject to service, but they are not jailed if concientious objectors). I had also heard that Germany allows those who face compulsary service (all young people, or just men?) to choose between military service or a longer community service, which sounds like at least a good compromise - lets concientious objectors work for non-profits instead.
• *allegedly ate all my alleged glue*
• *allegedly forgot allegedly all-important "tiny-tiny" alleged tags, allegedly curses*
• kamus: This literally effects everyone since we all have or know children that will have to go if this bill passes. It literally doesn't unless the US Congress is spreading its net to take in the whole world.
• biffa: Actually, I believe there are plans to increase rectuiment out of central America, Mexico in particular, in return for citizenship. Isn't it cute when imperial powers always end up go back to the Romans for their how-tos? "Managing Empires for Dummies."
• Just - don't eat the lead, okay?
• Anyone who thinks that Bush won't institute a draft when he gets back in, has a) completely ignored Bush's actions so far, b) learned nothing about the current state of the US military viz projected numbers for future engagements, c) not been paying attention to the news lately, d) not understood how batshit crazy the neocons are. If Bush gets back in (he probably will) - you, Americans, WILL face a draft. It may not come straight away, but it will come. It has to. Simple mathematics demand it. Where are your troops gonna come from, out of a box? Why did they reactivate oldies lately? Just for fun? Don't be fucking stupid. Arguing that a draft is 'political suicide - they'll never do it' is assinine. These are the people who *stole* an election, remember. Once these conservatives get back in, they have 4 years to do whatever they will. Four years is a long time in politics. The politicians will hope, as politicians do, that by the time the next election comes around the public will have forgotten their initial anger over the draft - or they will push up the fear until it seems a 'dreadful necessity that we have to undertake for the good of our country'. You *will* support the draft - or you will be labelled UnAmerican - just like those who did not support the Iraq war were UnAmerican. And if another terrorist strike occurs on US soil - forget it. You won't have any choice in the matter anyway. Anyone who dismisses this has rocks in their heads. You won't have enough troops to do all the things the Neocons want to do - and they will do those things if they get back in power. Iraq was a crazy, completely insane and unpractical thing to attempt. Yet they attempted it. You doubt their guile and naivety? So there would be a huge backlash against the draft, eh? Well, what the fuck would Americans *do* about it? How would you stop it? How? Protest in the streets? LOL
• *allegedly refuses to believe allegedly batshit elaboration of previously well-explained Bill -- allegedly carry on, kids!* /allegedly babysitting
• If there's a draft, we are sure to lose whatever war we are in. The hit to morale that the military would face would bring about an indcredible lowered efficiency. The military does not want this draft. Trust me on this. No military personnel that isn't out of his/her mind wants to reinforce their units with people that really don't want to be there. Another factor: In order to start a draft back up, it will take at the very least a year from the start of the draft to when they get troops on the ground. We are going to need extra uniforms, armor, vehicles, ammo, training grounds, etc for these people ordered well in advance of that. The hit to the economy alone should be enough to dissuade a draft of people up to 35 if it is a full draft and not a lottery draft. your assumptions that there will be no need for a draft are based on what, wishful thinking? Probably under the same assumptions that I have, that because the recruitment quotas are still being met, there's no need for a draft.
• wolof, you crack me up. i would much prefer my country attract more troops by paying them living wages and giving them decent places to sleep. christ. after hanging around on several army bases overseas, i'm shocked that ANYONE would want to get into that line of work. but i'm very, very grateful to those who do.
• "the recruitment quotas are still being met, there's no need for a draft." The recruitment quotas for what? Your problem is running short of reserve troops. From a DOD report: "If DOD's implementation of the partial mobilisation authority restricts the cumulative time that reserve component forces can be mobilised, then it is possible that DOD will run out of forces." 'The guard and reserve are crucial to the US war effort because they include specialised units such as military police, intelligence and civil affairs that are in high demand but in short supply in the active duty force.' You're in shtuck, mate. "If there's a draft, we are sure to lose whatever war we are in." - You've already lost the Iraq war anyway. The outcome will either be an Islamic fundamentalist government, or all-out civil war. The goals the US Administration had for Iraq cannot be achieved. "The military does not want this draft." - The military won't make the decision. The US Administration will. Rumsfeld, Cheney, et al. The military has no say in this matter.
• previously discussed. Surprisingly enough, by you and I, Nostrildamus!
• The DRAFT!!
• This might have been obvious, but I just wanted to point out that Kerry isn't using the possibility of a draft exactly because of the reasons outlined above. To most intelligent people a draft does not appear a realistic military or political possibility. As a result, trying to exploit the issue would make Kerry appear the worst sort of fear-mongering demogogue. While the issue might have some traction with fearful reactionarys, the vast majority of those aren't going to vote for Kerry anyway.
• CBS persists in running stories that foster its ratings slide
• It seems like Kerry could do something with this. Well, he is actually trying. Disinfopedia has lots of background info on this debate. As Kucinich says, we are already "drafting" the many thousands of soldiers that have been refused discharge by the military even though they've completed their full terms of service. I know several National Guardsmen who aren't coming home anytime soon, and they are angry about it. While a national draft is not an imminent event, it's not just a scare tactic either. If we keep warring at this rate, the need for soldiers will soon exceed the number of our voluntary forces, and that will mean a draft of some type. We had a draft for Vietnam -- remember Vietnam? -- and I see no reason why a draft won't be reinstated if the military runs out of willing soldiers. What else can they really do? Haven't you guys ever wondered why they make you register with the Selective Service when you turn 18? Yeah, it's so the military can find you. And draft you. I hope it doesn't happen anytime soon, but the draft is not an imaginary monster. It could easily become a political necessity.
• The US Administration will. Rumsfeld, Cheney, et al. Rumsfeld has said, ""We're not going to reimplement a draft. There is no need for it at all." The ONLY talk about a draft is coming from the left. And it's using the same scare tactics bullshit that Cheney, Hastert, and crew use when they say that Al-Qaeda will attack us if Kerry wins.
• The recruitment quotas for what? Your problem is running short of reserve troops. "Army Lt. Gen. Steven Blum, chief of the National Guard Bureau, said in an interview at his Pentagon office that the shortfall for the budget year ending Sept. 30 is likely to be about 5,000 soldiers. That is a little more than 1% of the total Army Guard force of 350,000...One reason is that the active-duty Army is prohibiting soldiers in units that are in Iraq or Afghanistan, or are preparing to deploy there, from leaving the service, even if their enlistment term is up. Thus the number who might consider moving into the Guard has shrunk temporarily."
• What else can they really do? Are You Going To Be Drafted? "Folks, right now, we are turning away volunteers for active duty in droves. With the current active duty enlistment and re-enlistment rates, Congress could triple the size of our active duty military, and a draft would still not be necessary" "Waivers which used to be common, such as waivers for minor juvenile offenses, are getting harder and harder to come by. Why approve a waiver, when there are candidates out there who don't need one, and Congress is restricting the number of folks you can enlist? Just by approving more waivers, the Department of Defense (DOD) could still fill the ranks with sufficient volunteers, even if Congress tripled the size of the military. In order for a draft to even be necessary, Congress would have to increase the size of our military by SEVERAL MILLION (which literally means several BILLIONS of dollars per year in personnel costs). That ain 't likely to happen."
• paying existing soldiers more (and thus raising the incentive to join - markets do work) would be far more popular and effective in the long run.
• Sarge, I'm only eighteen, I got a ruptured spleen And I always carry a purse I got eyes like a bat, and my feet are flat, and my asthma's getting worse Yes, think of my career, my sweetheart dear, and my poor old invalid aunt Besides, I ain't no fool, I'm a-goin' to school And I'm working in a DEE-fense plant Autumn is settling in up here. Anyone know where I can get a draught-excluder in Canada?
• Given that what shawj says is true, it's still mysterious as to why the selective service's budget doubles this year. As far as fearmongering goes, I suppose it's in the mind of the beholder. I, for one see a difference between "Al Qaeda will attack if you vote for Kerry" and "You might get drafted because there's a war on and America is militarily overextended" Both scenarios are possible but not really equivalent.
• shawnj wins this one. Like it or not (I certainly don't), a great many Americans believe the Iraq war is about defending America. Nobody disputes the prevalence of armchair warriors, but the US does have its share of patriots who would enlist at the slightest hint of national need. And if the military needs more volunteers than currently available, Bush can just deploy the weapon of mass marketing. America has the best marketers on the planet; they can sell military service to a million patriots, particularly the ones stuck in deadend mininum-wage jobs devoid of meaning. I'm no marketing expert, but this doesn't seem all that hard. Bush has plenty of supporters who think him the modern-day Churchill. Picture this TV ad: images of 9/11 and the mourning afterwards, sad female voiceover repeating "terrorism" four times in ten seconds, a Bush/Churchill intercut sequence, strong male voiceover pimping the "greatest generation" and "our chance," followed by shots of happy shiny beautiful people in uniform. Who needs a draft?
• The situations are not equivalent, no. But the mongering with which they are used and the fear that mongering is looking to instill is. The difference is that with the terrorist fearmongering is "You're going to die unless you give us more authority" and the draft fearmongering goes "You're going to die unless you stop the government from getting more authority". The common demoninator between the two is that both are trying to warn you about the danger of dying by factors completely out of your control - unless you do what they tell you to do.
• Er, denominator. Works either way, I guess. ;)
• I like demoninator! I'm not disagreeing with you shawnj in the sense that both sides will amplify fear to suit their cause. I do think that the Kerry/terrorist strike is a more absurd causality than "you might get drafted because a war is going badly" Contary to what you say about control, we really can't predict whether terrorists will strike in the event of Kerry winning but the decision to draft rests solely with the government- they have the control.
• Hey boys and girls, National Coming Out day will shortly be upon us. Join our evil minions and steer clear of the draft at the same time! Its win-win for everyone except BushCo.
• the same scare tactics bullshit A draft wouldn't scare me, actually, but I guess my point is that it wouldn't surprise me either. Can you provide a current DOD source to verify that the military is actually turning away qualified volunteers, or are we relying solely on that about.com opinion piece? I can't find anything legit on that topic. I understand that Rumsfeld says we don't need a draft, but given Rummy's past problems with the whole "truth" concept, I am not eager to believe anything he says. I did find a July article from the Dallas Morning News which presents an interesting overview of the situation, and seems fairly objective.
• Ok, what if Bush says: the American people have Spoken! We will not have a draft. We will cantract out military matters to all-american companies like halliburton. then raises our taxes to pay for it? he'd sort of be having it both ways. god i wish this election was over
• shwnj: Rumsfield aso believed that a lower number of troops than his professional soldiers advised would be jusr fine to manage Iraq. It appears his professional soldiers were correct. You'll forgive me if I take what he has to say about manpower requirments with a pinch of salt.
• of interest: "The phones at the Selective Service System in Washington, D.C., ring more frequently these days. Some callers are nothing short of hysterical. "Officials at the nearly forgotten federal agency that would be responsible for running any future military draft say they have been receiving thousands of calls in recent months from people who are under the impression that mandatory conscription is imminent for men and women age 18 to 26."
• Hackworth: Uncle Sam Will Soon Want Your Kids
• Hackworth rocks.
• 10/5/2004 Failed of passage/not agreed to in House. Status: On motion to suspend the rules and pass the bill Failed by the Yeas and Nays: (2/3 required): 2 - 402 (Roll no. 494). [tip of the banana to brownpau]
• Pentagon Expert Say Military Draft May Be Necessary