September 28, 2004

Scientists have been WAITING for a Parkfield, CA quake. And now they've got-a-one.
posted by mecurious 20 years ago
  • This magnitude 6.0 quake RUPTURED the San Andreas fault, which according to this would be the first rupture in the Southern California section of that fault since 1857.
  • Now if we could just get the [newswire] media to stop using that dumb word "temblor".
  • In 1857 the Parkfield quake was a foreshock to the largest Calfornia quake in recorded times. Stay tuned?
  • I was at work (still am) when the quake went off. Was reading Greg Palast's book (still am too) "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy." I am about 85 miles from the epicenter, in the basement of a big blockish stone structure, half underground (as we are on a hill). Lasted about a 2nd, small tremble here. A coworker didn't even notice it, I didn't notice it til it was almost over. Only reason I did was the large metal shelves behind me creaked and my chair moved a bit (it's on wheels). Also, I have used way to many parentheses in this comment (haven't I?).
  • From NYT article: "Parkfield, population 37, is known as the earthquake capital of California. Located on the San Andreas fault, it has experienced six similar, magnitude 6.0 earthquakes with apparent regularity -- one approximately every 22 years."
  • I'm about 50 miles away, and I would describe my experience as significant and protracted house-shakery. Not so much fun.
  • I'm about 200 miles away, and I was the only person at work that felt it, which means that I ran around the office saying "did you feel that? did you feel that?" and got only blank stares in reponse. And so for a few minutes, apparently everyone here thought I had finally gone around the bend. Until the USGS website proved I wasn't delusional. At least not about earthquakes.
  • From Cali's NYT quote: "it has experienced six similar, magnitude 6.0 earthquakes with apparent regularity -- one approximately every 22 years." That is a bit of an oversimplification (as averages are, by definition): 1857->1881=24 1881->1901=20 1901->1922=21 1922->1934=12 1934->1966=32 So even taking the longest interval one could have expected a 6.0 by 1998. So the overdue event has changed the average from 22 to 24.5 years. I have no idea why one would look to any of the traditional news media when one has the USGS info right on the web in real time. I told a coworker about the news and he immediately went to Yahoo.
  • I felt the quake, but was surprised that it was a 6.0 at a distance of 60 miles or so to the west. My guess, when it happened, was more like 3.0, though it lasted a little longer than 3s usually do. (Yeah, I'm a native Californian who plays earthquake roulette.) The force must have been directed north/south. And, for those of you who think that getting warnings of impending tornados/floods/hurricanes is better than not knowing that an earthquake is coming: I moved to Oklahoma in the 1970s in the springtime. We'd watch the evening news, which mostly talked about tornado watches and warnings, or flood watches and warnings. Since I had no idea what "whatch" or "warning" entailed, I had no idea when to panic. The land was really flat, so I thought, if a flood is coming, where could I go? The best choice seemed to be get the family ino the car and go park on an overpass. After I'd lived there longer, I got more used to the whole thing, but, still, when the sirens would go off, finding the safest room became the norm. I remember my 6 year old daughter lying in the bath tub in the bathroom which was in the middle of the house, in a panic and crying, since a tornado was kind of close. On the other hand, an earthquake happens, and when it's done, either everything falls down on you or it doesn't. Anticipation doesn't drive you nuts. Well, different stokes, but I'll take earthquakes any day.
  • On the other hand, an earthquake happens, and when it's done, either everything falls down on you or it doesn't. Anticipation doesn't drive you nuts. Amen to that.
  • I was on the 18th floor of a 33 story building in downtown San Francisco for the Loma Prieta (epicenter 60 miles from SF, surface-wave magnitude, 7.1) earthquake. I thought they were going to have to collect my remains in a Hefty bag. I live in Iowa now and when the sirens go off I just go downstairs and play PS2 with the kids. I'll take the tornadoes, though I might change my vote if one ever visits my house. Curious George: I notice in a lot of the "after" photographs of tornadoes in Oklahoma that the houses are on flat slabs of concrete, why are there seemingly no basements in Oklahoma?
  • Before I lived in Santa Cruz, earthquakes were rare and exciting. Now I'm completely neurotic about them, thanks to the way people reacted to them in the Bay Area. We had one here not long after moving back to NZ at about 6am one morning, and despite it being about a 3.5, I was out of bed and under the doorway in about quarter of a second. Sad.
  • I was in Santa Clara for the Loma Prieta quake, maybe 30 miles from the epicenter.. It was scarey, but, for me , nothing like the weather events in the midwest. And, vapidave - yes, the newer houses in Oklahoma in the 1970s were basement-less. I doubt that that has changed. You could build a storm cellar in your backyard if you had the $$. And, tracicle, how did the people you knew react to earthquakes? Downtown Santa Cruz was trashed in the Loma Prieta event, so there may have been some fallout, but, in my experience, once the earthquake is over, it's done. When you got out of the doorway, did you relax and go on with life?
  • (Disclaimer: I am not a geologist.) vapidave - In Eastern Oklahoma, at least, the water table is pretty high, making basements and cellars a difficult proposition. There is also supposed to be a layer of bedrock that's not too far down, or so the common wisdom on basements goes. The high school I attended did have a basement, and even a sub-basement. It was a scary place, damp at best, half-flooded at worst.
  • Earthquakes in Santa Cruz in the time I was there seemed to cause more paranoia and fear than any terrorist threat. Maybe it's because there, earthquakes are so much a part of local history. All the buildings are earthquake-safe, the university had huge posters with what to do in an earthquake, and I knew a ton of people who lived there at the time of Loma Prieta. Every week there'd be articles in the local free papers referring to the '89 quake in various contexts. Plus I think we arrived there in time for the 10-year anniversary of the quake itself, which was interesting in itself. Here in Christchurch, the nearest faultline is 200km away and we rarely feel any quakes - the strongest was 3.7, I think. They're so rare here that I was, I suppose, startled at their relevance in Bay Area culture. Maybe it was more an eye-opener than anything else.
  • I [heart] the USGS.
  • This is getting interesting... A 5.0 quake, in the last hour, 12 miles northwest of the one yesterday on the San Andreas: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/121-36.html. You might want to hold off on any travel plans to San Francisco*. : / *This message Not Approved by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce.
  • Actually, this is even more interesting that at first glance. Yesterdays 6.0 quake was at 10:15 am PST. Today at 10:10 am PST there was a 5.0 event followed TWO MINUTES LATER by a 4.5 event (at the exact same epicenter). That means that the slippage was "caught" (interupted for 2 minutes before the next slippage). If the total slippage would have happened in one go, I wonder how big that event would have been!
  • I'd like to know the answer to mercurious' question too. I know that the 6.0 was 10 times stronger than the 5.0 which was (?) stronger than the 4.5 but I don't know how to total them. Intuition says a total of 6.13-ish. Paging logarithmic math monkeys.
  • Hold it, Hades, god of molten underrealms! and you, Persephone with your six ruby pips, tell him to hold the earth together, ask him not to untie any more knots down below the roots of your pomegranite trees.
  • Gaw'dammit!