September 19, 2004

• Its amazing to me, just how many people with any sense, business or otherwise, that will vote for Bush.
• Actually a low dollar will at least stave off the death of what's left of US manufacturing for a while, especially if they can sell to the European market. A low currency is not universally a bad thing. On the other hand, the US's current economic path is.
• When I was getting ready to move this spring, my financial adviser said some of the same things. He also talked about the impending pop of the housing bubble; specifically he said I'd pay a higher interest rate the next time I bought a house, but it would be a lot cheaper, quite possibly because it would be a foreclosure. The reason to vote for Bush's economic policies would be that you're terrified that you'll die otherwise. I'd say "or you think the Democratic policies would be worse", but part of me wonders whether anyone who thinks the Earth is round really thinks that. There are people who would be short-term losers; maybe they don't see that Bush's (economic and geopolitical-economic) policies are leading us off a cliff. The Bush campaign has framed the election around foreign policy because Republicans have a perceived advantage there. Our underlying economic problems are the elephant in the room. Nobody wants to talk about them.
• I have met intelligent Bush voters: PhD level education, solid jobs, the whole bit. The stated reason for voting for Bush - tax cuts. Point out that they are actually tax deferments, and see the subject get changed.
• The GOP has an aura of greatness, power, and decisiveness. Also their school of thinking is deceptively simple and appeals to a whole range of selfish individualistic sentiments. I know I bought into it ten years ago, but only for a short while.
• Yeah, I know intelligent Bush voters, who know something about current events. I find myself studying them like they were some new species of beetle. My findings: They were immune to what I thought were crushing, hard-reality arguments, like the one above. Mostly because they perceived strength as the determining factor, not correctness of policy. This is not an entirely stupid thing to believe. A lot of informed Bush voters believe, with some justification, that Kerry would be an indecisive mess. Liberal voters, in my experience, are not much better. Bottom line: it's about psychology, not policy.
• Space Coyote: You're quite correct, and a lot of concern about strong dollar/weak dollar is more an emotional argument that a rational one. There are two fish hooks for the US, though: the US is very reliant on imported goods, arguably more so than any time in the past. Everything from the bottom end of the market (textiles) to the top (computers) are now mostly or wholly foreign made. While China is trying to keep an artifically low exchange rate, consumer products from there may stay cheap. If - as inevitably will happen - it gets too expensive for the Chinese to keep that policy, though, you can expect to see big increases in what everything costs. Between that and the increasing (from a US perspective) cost of things like oil, you could be headed for quite the inflationary period. The second big problem is you're looking at huge borrow-and-spend policies; debt is skyrocketing for the US, and a falling currency will affect the cost of that debt sooner or later. If the increasing volume of debt and an increasing cost of servicing hits the US, you're in big trouble.
• Why would people with the least business sense vote for Bush? They're already rich, and know that he helps his friends. (Offer not valid for poor people).
• Following this year's bizarre weather patterns: Euronext wheat futures hit fresh record of 300 eur per tonne. This is not good.