March 18, 2004

• Yes, it's true, we're all going to die. Some of us sooner than others! What's it to ya?
• I love those dieoff links. Such wonderful science fiction. It reminds me of this hilarious Y2K Superdisaster website that would let you put in your "projected" probabilities that each piece of infrastructure would up and collapse (outputting a probability, invariably higher than 95%, that the whole system would end up collapsing; details of the algorithm were not shared). Of course, if you put in all zeros, it would chide you for your lack of soresight. Sure enough, the world ended on 1 January 2000.
• Try hubbertpeak.com too.
• Those who dismiss this out of hand are doing themselves ill service. I would certainly agree that these doomsday scenarios contain a large element of hysteria. However, the indicators for an irreversible oil crisis within our lifetimes are troubling to any sensible person. My own optimism is premised mostly on my belief in human ingenuity, and developments over the last few years in the field of alternative energy production. Anyone with a reasonable degree of prudence should keep in mind that they may well have to deal with an radical restructuring of the world energy economy within the next 50 years. It might not happen, but the evidence that it could is very strong. Consider it like the possibility that your house might burn down. If you convince yourself it will never happen you'll only be that much more upset when it does.
• Those who dismiss this out of hand are doing themselves ill service. I would certainly agree that these doomsday scenarios contain a large element of hysteria. However, the indicators for an irreversible oil crisis within our lifetimes are troubling to any sensible person. My own optimism is premised mostly on my belief in human ingenuity, and developments over the last few years in the field of alternative energy production. Anyone with a reasonable degree of prudence should keep in mind that they may well have to deal with an radical restructuring of the world energy economy within the next 50 years. It might not happen, but the evidence that it could is very strong. Consider it like the possibility that your house might burn down. If you convince yourself it will never happen you'll only be that much more upset when it does.
• What, you thought I was being dismissive? It's just that there's nothing that these people are suggesting that is going to change the trajectory of human culture, and little that the individual can really do to prepare for the kind of catastrophe that seems in the offing. Awareness isn't enough, people. Must stop burning fossil fuels and make other changes immediately, worldwide... not gonna happen!