April 23, 2007
From every quarter one hears calls for “reform” to bring France more in line with Anglo-American practices and policies. The dysfunctional French social model, we are frequently assured, has failed. In that case there is much to be said for failure. French infants have a better chance of survival than American ones. The French live longer than Americans and they live healthier (at far lower cost). They are better educated and have first-rate public transportation. The gap between rich and poor is narrower than in the United States or Britain, and there are fewer poor people. Yes, France has high youth unemployment, thanks to institutionalized impediments to job creation. But the comparison to American rates is misleading: our figures are artificially lowered because so many dark-skinned men aged 18 to 30 are in prison and thus off the unemployment rolls... ...It is not obvious that any of his likely successors would have done as well. Mr. Chirac is old enough to appreciate Europe’s debt to America — on the 60th anniversary of D-Day he said, sincerely, that “France will never forget what it owes America, its steadfast friend and ally” — but Gaullist enough to oppose Washington’s folies de grandeur. His heir presumptive, Nicolas Sarkozy, is neither. Mr. Sarkozy’s admiration and knowledge of the United States appear confined to its economic growth rate. He opposes Turkish membership in the European Union in the most intolerant terms: “If you let 100 million Turkish Muslims come in, what will come of it?” And his Gaullism is tainted by a weakness for rightist catchwords — “nation” and “identity,” not to mention “scum” when referring to rioting minority youths — with which he hopes to outflank Mr. Le Pen. Ségolène Royal, the socialists’ candidate, has a Joan of Arc complex (in her declaration of candidacy last October she spoke of hearing “calls” and accepting “this mission of conquest for France”), and she practices what could be called a “soft” demagogy. On crucial issues — the European Union Constitution, Turkish admission to Europe — she has avoided commitment, promising instead to “listen to the people.”
Centrist -------- Union for French Democracy 18.57% Left ---- Revolutionary Communist League 4.08% French Communist Party 1.93% Workers' Party 0.34% Bové (anti-globalization) 1.32% Workers' Struggle 1.33% The Greens 1.57% Socialist Party 25.87% --------------------------------------- Total 36.44% Right ====== Huntin', Shootin', Fishin' Party 1.15% Movement for France 2.23% National Front 10.44% Gaullists 31.18% --------------------------------------- Total 45.00%Theoretically, Bayrou (Union for French Democracy) emerges as a king- or queen-maker. However, Sarko needs only one third of Bayrou's supporters to take the second round, whereas Sego needs about 80% - assuming a comparable turnout. I'm not sure that Bayrou's support is sufficiently loyal for him to transfer enough of it to the socialists, assuming a deal is struck.