November 12, 2006

• Fundamentalist Shi'a regime gains control, bolsters fundamentalist Shi'a regime in Iran, becomes the next Taliban, only far more powerful. :)
• Some religious Shia leader takes power. He either quells Sunni uprisings through violence or concessions. Kurds are quashed between Turkey and new Iraq, possible genocide or diaspora. Iraq-Iran collaboration. Saudi Arabia looks to US for more bases and defense. Kuwait does the same. Subsequent political unrest in these countries, leading to more oppression. Israel becomes more aggressive, under the goal of better defense. Iraq gets the bomb. Lebanon gets attacked again. Iraq/Iran threaten Israel. The West looses influence and military sway in the area, except through Israel. Hamas is emboldened. Hezzbollah is emboldened. Russia and China step in as arbiters of peace, pretty much castrating US influence in the area. South America leftism catches momentum and solidifies bonds with Middle East counter parts, gas prices soar. Suadi Arabia and Kuwait will possibly subsequently flood the market with cheap gas to hinder economic development in Iraq, and to economically damage Chavez, because the US tells them to. Attacks against US embassies throughout Muslim countries, these will be provocations to a fight, because the bully just lost the fight. The US may possibly shift attention to Afghanistan to regain foothold in the area. All in all it looks pretty grim. The UN is once again prevented from doing anything relevant, by the US veto.
• I don't know what will happen, but what I want to see happen is for the US-led coalition to pull out, permanent bases and all, over a period of a year or so. Iraqis have a tough century ahead of them, but I think they will have an easier time priming their fledgeling democracy if they don't have an occupying nation breathing down their necks. What I expect will happen is that Bush will continue his bumbling course until Iraq becomes an insoluble problem a la Israel/Palestine. Fifty years from now we will wonder why the hell the warring factions in Iraq can't just figure something out. Meanwhile, the next two generations will hate us for causing this mess. At some point the price of oil will cross some threshold and everything will go to hell. I would be extremely surprised if we haven't had a real old fashioned world war and a global economic crash before 2050.
• Yes, the Viet Nam war was won by one side, pretty decisively. Unless the Iraqi can get a more consolidated force together and drive us out, our leaving otherwise would, I think, send them into the abyss, where the complications of 3 major combatants (Sunni, Shia and Kurds) are made even more complicated by the local militas, tribal customs, and participation by outside Islamic groups. In the meantime, the middle class, relatively secular Iraqis will be decimated. And. fuyugare - I don't think there's any such thing as "a real old fashioned world war." We've become so much more inventive!
• Country gets divided along religious lines. In response to Kurdish independence statement Turkey attacks newly formed Kurd state. Iranian agents are elected heads of the newly formed Shi'a state and declare war upon newly formed Sunni state. Sunni state is backed by Saudis. They provided the Sunni state with nuclear weapons from Saudi secret clandestine nuclear program. Sunnis are attacked with nerve agents by Shi'as and respond with a-bomb attack on Shi'a capital and Tehran. China and Russia lose thousands of citizens in the bombing of Tehran, declare war on newly formed sunni state and Saudi Arabia. USA comes to the defense of Saudi declaring war on both China and Russia. No more pie
• We still have troops in Korea. We aren't leaving Iraq anytime soon. (Heck, we even still have a military base in Germany, so we might not ever leave Iraq!)
• Iraq, in the long run, will elect D-Rum as Pres and K-Fed as Minister of Culture. All will be well as both D-Rum and K-Fed will grow the requisite facial hair. The Kurds, however, will keep eating Big Macs and look on as a hiker looks on to a landslide.
• Honestly, I think Russia, China, and possibly India will eventually be arbiters anyway; the best way to retain some measure of influence in the region would be to facilitate their entry into the picture. I have this idealistic, possibly even naive, hope that a Democratic House and Senate will use cabinet confirmation hearings as a proxy to interrogate and direct the President with respect to future foreign policy moves.
• Thinking about it any more than that makes my head asplode. With one ess.
• Iraq could, ironically, wind up looking much like it did prior to the British occupation during the First World War.
• I think the probability of a stable Western-style Democracy in a united Iraq in this century is somewhat less than that of the return of the Mahdi, so perhaps we should strive to hasten the latter.
• Free dance lessons!
• Civil war without end, Shias garnering support from Iran, and Sunnis and Kurds from the US. This will really fuck up US oil interests. Ha ha.
• I guess somebody has already said 'thermonucular warfare'. I can't really look it up right now, all my moons are in the wrong place.
• Gotta go with Argh with the exception that I suspect we will cut a deal with Russia for oil, et.al. The Chinese and the ex-soviet states REALLY don’t like each other. Doubtful they would ally. Lotsa other factors as well. So, the U.S. and the Rooskies vs. China. With India and Pakistan as wild cards (but opposed in any case). Tough one. Could be mitigated by a technological breakthrough that eases petroleum dependancy, or if folks get a case of the rationals and compromise. But it’d mean cutbacks in living standards and gross consumption for a good hunka the first world. Joe Corporate wouldn’t want that. Meh. Ways around that too. But it’d have to be done incrimentally and patiently.