October 19, 2005

Hurricane Wilma is now the strongest in history, clocking in at 882 millibars, though it would have to dip below 870 to beat the strongest typhoon [PDF]. Also we've run out of storm names for 2005, and are to start on the Greek alphabet. What a bizarre season.
posted by rolypolyman 19 years ago
  • But global warming is not to blame, of course.
  • Surf's up!
  • There is no such thing as global warming. I know this because most so-called scientists deny God. You see, global warming is a pseudoscientific fraud perpetuated by an atheistic liberal cabal whose goal is to delay and ultimately prevent the second coming of Christ. Now that I've written that I feel dirty. Ewww.
  • Nomen, go to your room!
  • "Hurricane Wilma Determined to Attack Inside United States." Wonder if they'll take this report seriously...
  • "Hurriance Wilma brings hailstones the size of Flintstones"
  • Did those hailstones go 'Bam! Bam! BamBamBam!?
  • Holy cow. Last I heard last night is it was just inching into Category 2, and when I wake up, it's Category 5! And 882mb! Freaky.
  • are millibars those little airplane liquor things?
  • Ooof. My Gramma is right in the middle of the current projected path for Wilma. No family nearby to help her, and as of last night she said she was just going to stay at home and wait it out. I hope she changes her mind soon . . .
  • fimbulvetr, I very much hope neighbors will help your grandmother to stay safe, and evacuate if necessary! I have a dear friend in Miami and every time one of these things pops up I get nervous... so WTF??? with the disasters this year? I mean, natural catastrophes happen every year, all over the globe, but it seems to me that a greater than usual percent of them have been on the far end of the range this year...the hurricanes in particular are off the charts.
  • "a witch"
  • Yeah, unfortunately all of her neighbours are either "snowbirds" (so not down in Forida yet), or as old as her. I told her to see if someone from her church can help her out . . . there has to be some advantage to going to mass every morning. I just hope she isn't too stubborn or proud to do it.
  • How'd I end up being the monkey in the middle? Poo. Wilma just totally ruined everything. And don't even get me started on the name. Everyone do me a favor and please hope a whole bunch that this thing weakens before it drowns me and my poor little island.
  • Yeah, Pete, I saw that on MeFi. Besides the innate absurdity of Bush controlling hurricanes, they completely failed to address a key question: WHY would Bush choose to repeatedly strike his most loyal constituency with hurricanes? I love the idea that Bush is so evil that he randomly wants to destroy parts of his own country for absolutely no reason.
  • Giving weather human names is just silly to begin with. Why not give snowstorms and earthquakes human names? Why not give rainstorms, heatwaves, and coldspells human names? Why not wars? Terrorist attacks? Traffic jams? I am going to officially begin naming my orgasms.
  • Well, Bush isn't mentioned in the first link, and Senator Hutchison's (R-TX) "Weather Modification" bill is strange for sure, but I don't see a lot of "Bush did it" - ? I did search for "global warming" and found some funny right-wing talk show comments like this: "So why so many hurricanes? Who knows. It's hurricane season. However, in the coming days, expect the left and the media to begin pushing the nonsense that Hurricane Wilma is being caused by global warming. Since George Bush did not sign the Kyoto treaty, then that means Bush himself is the cause. It's the new liberal template: no matter where there is suffering or devastation, no matter who or what caused it, it's somehow George Bush's fault. This will be no different. Just watch. " I was more interested in the technology aspect (or what there is of it).
  • Heh, I found Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us, featuring: Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like. It was here, from Feb 2004. Although I'd still rather talk about the technology used to control the weather
  • so WTF??? with the disasters this year? I mean, natural catastrophes happen every year, all over the globe, but it seems to me that a greater than usual percent of them have been on the far end of the range this year...the hurricanes in particular are off the charts. Kinda makes me get why people started chucking folks down volcanos and shit. It really does make it a little easier to think maybe we have really, really, pissed Somebody off. May I make a confession? It's me. Send me your best stuff, money, and toss some annoying people somewhere cranky before I bust your asses so hard y'all fall right off the map! *breathes fire, smotes a bit, waits for supplicants*
  • O Thou Divine Strumpet, I do offer you as a mark of my fealty this petebest, which is fatted and free from blemish, that thou might turn aside thy wrath from Miami and maybe do something about the humidity, which is totally fucking up my hair. I remain, etc.
  • Here's a - Hey! quit shoving! - here's a daily meme inn'it: (Puget)Sound Warning: Scientists say the region is already feeling climate change
  • "Never mind that global warming is an incredibly slow process that couldnt possibly have such a large effect so fast.." tch. Doofus. No one is saying it happened over night. This is cumulative.
  • But it was so cold out yesterday...
  • drjimmy11 has a point. Global warming is real, and scientifically valid, but if it feels noticably warmer/stormier than it did 10 years ago/20 years ago/when you were a kid, that's not global warming. The natural climate cycles are more severe and shorter-lasting that the much longer-term trends predicted by global warming models.
  • Somewhere in the Caribbean, a bunch of tropical lows are sitting around making bets on who's stronger. Not that women would do such a thing, which is why male names are much more appropriate for hurricanes.
  • Remember kids: 1) Global warming is real. 2) We can't detect global warming. Now try that with the tooth fairy.
  • While there is no true way to prove that Katrina was or was not influenced by global warming on it's own, statistics of temperatures and overall storm patterns show otherwise. For a single event, however extreme, it's impossible to link to a long term cause. Extreme weather is always gonna be the result of lots of different factors and no one single cause. It's impossible to prove Katrina or Wilma are products of global warming alone, but it's equally implausible to claim it is part of a natural weather cycle. However, statistically, there are correlations between hurricane activity and global warming. While you can't make a conclusion about a single hurricane, by looking at the patterns of a lot of them, you certainly can. There is plenty of evidence that global warming makes hurricanes that form much more powerful than they would otherwise be. Sea surface temperatures are over 1° F warmer on average than a century ago, and warm water is the engine of hurricanes. When Katrina turned from a tropical storm into a hurricane, the waters of the gulf were 2° higher than average. A study published in Nature showed that the intensity of global tropical storms has increased since the '50s. It's perfectly reasonable to link global warming to increase in hurricane intensity.
  • No, no, no, pete. You're not allowed to suggest that it's global warming. It's Intelligent Storming.
  • To your point Chyren, the above article shows they've markedly increased in intensity in the last 10 years. Also Re: global warming, Baked Alaska, and who can forget the ice tongue, featuring the boffo quote: Although higher air temperatures are a factor, they say, the full picture may go beyond just simple global warming.
  • It's Intelligent Storming. Oh. Uh . . Right. So . . I'll just go back to the drinking then, shall I?
  • Bloody good idea, I think I'll do the same.
  • oh, crap.
  • No, no, no, pete. You're not allowed to suggest that it's global warming. It's Intelligent Storming. Chyren: read the article petebest linked to. You'll find statements like: ...many scientists agree that the present hurricane surge is likely part of a 60-to-70-year cycle that changes the strength of ocean currents distributing heat around the globe. and, "Frankly, no one can say with 100 percent certainty, but it appears to be a natural effect," says Thomas Delworth, a climate modeler at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory... Here's another article explaining the same situation.
  • The same article says increased temperatures "may" have increased their intensity though. And the melting ice in Alaska & Antarctic? Wait - is the point that global warming isn't causing the hurricanes or that it doesn't exist as a phenomenon? Or neither? *orders another*
  • Wait - is the point that global warming isn't causing the hurricanes or that it doesn't exist as a phenomenon? Or neither? *downs a shot and takes a sip of ale* (a)It does exist as a phenomenon, and serious steps should be taken by all industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse emissions, even if it means decreased economic growth. (b)It likely isn't responsible for the observed increase in hurricane numbers and strength over the last 10 years. Every time it's hot outside, the global warming adherents say "See, global warming is real!!!", and every time it's cold outside global warming naysayers say "See, global warming is fake!!!" I'll put my trust in the scientific majority.
  • In a nano-second blink of an earth-eye, records have been kept on Atlantic-based hurricanes (or any region for that matter). Could it be global warming? Perhaps, yes. It could also be a bad case of earthly indigestion: molten core beer farts I propose! Could I toss another hyphen in there?
  • rocket88, always the voice of reason. if it feels noticably warmer/stormier than it did 10 years ago/20 years ago/when you were a kid, that's not global warming My point exactly. I am quite confident global warming is happening. However, ancedotal evidence != science.
  • In related news, baby Google-Kai has begun speaking in tongues.
  • It does exist as a phenomenon, and serious steps should be taken by all industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse emissions I tend to agree personally but isn't it true that scientifically speaking we don't really know whether reducing greenhouse emissions will have a good or a bad effect. To wit, there's an Ice Age cycle and supposedly we're overdue for one *right now*. So what's to say that greenhouse gases are actually preventing us from freezing? The certainty of the statements being made on what to do or not do, doesn't seem backed by our current knowledge of meteorology.
  • I think we should do or not do whatever is best for the corporation that contributes the most money to the party in power. Yep, that's the right thing to do.
  • One important note I saw in the description of this storm is that the forecasters are quite uncertain about where it is going to go. The computer models do not agree. The Gulf coast of TX, LA, and MS seem safe at this point, but Florida might get screwed. And there is now way to know until the storm starts moving.
  • Shit. I no longer live in South Florida, so in a way I'm pretty frigging relieved. However, two of the projections show it plowing through Miami/Fort Lauderdale, and the northernmost track has my ex directly in its path. So I'm really concerned about a lot of people right now. Bleah.
  • *worries way too soon about NS getting screwed, again*
  • So hard to tell from this thread if I should be drinking, canning or moving further north. Or perhaps further south. If England is going to be Siberia in 20 years that means that Georgia will be Maine and just full of Yankees who will be helpful when it snows but will later mostly be shot by 'end times' people who think the process should be respected because it's god's way of selecting the chosen. Whatever the case, I'm certainly glad I only have to die once. Also-does anyone think that Disneyland could possibly be flattened by this hurricane? Can we start some sort of a pool? Or would that be in poor taste?
  • A fantasy football team owner (a storm chaser) changed his team's name to "Hurricane Wilma". Another member replied.
  • So why can't it be both? 60-70 year hurricane cycle? Sure, but this is worse than the last high cycle and it's still early in the cycle. Add a naturally occuring warming cycle and top it off with human-generated warming (which may be still very early and very subtle) throw them all together and 1+1+1 can equal 37... call it "The Perfect Storm(s)". James "Connections" Burke did a documentary in 1991 titled "After the Warming" that, while now dated, came to the discouraging conclusion that by the time Global Warming effects are obvious, it'll be far too late to reverse the trend. In fact, he suggested that it was already getting too late in 1991, and I believe him. Of course, this is going to be good for Las Vegas, (1) being already the most thoroughly air-conditioned city on earth [another 20 degrees? big deal!] (2) having theme hotels based on many world locations sure to be destroyed and (3) soon to be beachfront property!
  • If we're putting dibs on this, i'd like Ottawa to become the new Vancouver. I'd like Siberia to be the new Brazil because they need a break as well as some good dances. Also Fiji would become the new Vladivostok because i never go there.
  • If Disneyland gets flattened by this 'cane we are all fucked, however Disneyworld is certainly at risk for some serious rain, at least /smartass
  • Sorry about the Disney Land instead of Disney World mistake. I was drinking when I should have been canning. And this serious rain, it could not be of remarkable breadth and depth and cause the magic kingdom to sink beneath the irony of it's existence? Even though it is Google-Kai's land of legacy. It's what he's talking about, you know. That's why no one understands.
  • moneyjane (oh volcano goddess-y one), I'll make you a peach cobbler if you promise not to smite me :)
  • Puny mortals! Thy petebest, fatted, thy cobblers, peached, sate me not as I am feeling smote-tastic and extra-smitey! Maybe two of each, except don't send them in the same box as I dasn't like my cobblers all petebest-y.
  • I think I've got the master plan! the Volcano Goddess Moneyjane can get smote-tastical on the ass of Disneyworld and "cause the magic kingdom to sink beneath the irony of it's existence" and the implacable weight of her smitey rage!
  • Yes! Do that!
  • "Chyren: read the article petebest linked to. You'll find statements like: ...many scientists agree that the present hurricane surge is likely part of a 60-to-70-year cycle that changes the strength of ocean currents distributing heat around the globe." No one can prove that the present effects are a natural cycle any more than we can prove that they are definitively created by global warming: we only have one Earth and uncountable variants that could come into play in many different possible lines of outcome. So anyone saying it is 'likely' to be a natural cycle is being disingenous at best, unscientific at worst. Again, the statistical analyses show that higher temperatures in the water are allowing the hurricanes that do form, to be much stronger. This is inarguable. "Frankly, no one can say with 100 percent certainty, but it appears to be a natural effect," says Thomas Delworth, a climate modeler at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory..." No one can say with 100 percent certainty. And if you want to get into a specious argument to authority, I can bring in much more authoritative voices than Tom Delworth, some computer modeler, to state the exact opposite. Puh-lease. If you really think that the unusual weather over the last decade in the gulf is part of a natural cycle, then would you please also tell me the temperature of the sand? The sand you have your head in? "Every time it's hot outside, the global warming adherents say "See, global warming is real!!!", and every time it's cold outside global warming naysayers say "See, global warming is fake!!!" I'll put my trust in the scientific majority." This is crap. No one in this thread made any comments based on anecdotal evidence. That is a straw man argument you are raising, rocket, and it appears you had to raise it twice cos no one took the bait the first time. The majority of authoritative experts agree that the increase in powerful storms is a factor of global warming. We have evidence of global warming in our lifetimes; we have no scientific evidence of these long term climate cycles. People denying the impact of global warming, at this point, are in denial.
  • denial of denial, even.
  • we have no scientific evidence of these long term climate cycles I'm likely missing your point here, Chy, but there is plenty of evidence of long-term climate cycles. Back 300 million years ago, the polar ice caps were non-existent. There's indisputable evidence of recurrent Ice Ages, etc.
  • There is no evidence of the sort of rapid global warming that's occurred in the last 100 years. Changes into ice ages and warmer periods in history are very slow. I should have been more specific in what I was on about.
  • The majority of authoritative experts agree that the increase in powerful storms is a factor of global warming. Links? I'm not denying global warming, or it's impact. It's just that the information I've seen from knowledgable experts in the field show that it is expected to be a slow process, taking hundreds of years for significant changes to develop. Effects over a 10 or 20 year time frame will be negligible. Those are expert opinions, not mine. That being said, we shouldn't wait until those changes show up before we do anything about it. But I think that claiming global warming is the cause of this year's extra-strong hurricanes, when the scientific experts are claiming otherwise, is disingenuous.
  • I Love James "Connections" Burke!
  • Feature Request: Can we remove in-line images, now that we know what they're really for?
  • I kind of hope there's one more hurricane after Wilma (one that stays over the ocean and doesn't bother anyone, anyway). I have an Aunt Alpha, so that'd be cool.
  • Phew, just saw that NASA animation with all this years' hurrican paths... that Ophelia really danced and zig-zagged all over the coast!
  • Moneyjane! Abate thy wrath O smitey one. Behold, I shall shake mine booty for thy amusement.
  • Whilst thy booty may shake with a fervour rarely seen as to smash down the very mountains and slosh the affrighted seas in their'st beds, I shall not be dissuaded from my smoteriffic wrathfest! Quail before my vexedness! Pile high thy bling in the vestibules, remember to turn off the stove and let not thy door hit thy rump as thou takest thine leave!
  • Well, this hurricane's wrath may be nothing to joke about, but, at the very least, it has propiciated some delicious rump-shaking by PA. /sits down, starts clapping
  • So why hasn't there been a Hurricane Moneyjane? Is that why she's so overwrothfull?
  • Yes, and what some others? Maybe we'd like to see Hurricane Quidnunc. Well, no maybe that's not what we want to see at all, at all. Hurricane Flagpole. That's a great one. Hurricane Smo. Yup. Smo short for smote. Hurricane BlueHorse doesn't sound like a hurricane but maybe a cool cowpunk band. Hurricane Moneyjane rhymes nicely. Hurricane Pallas Athena sounds too formal to be a storm. Hurricane Blanky is dangerous but comforting. Hurricane Captain Renault isn't a storm but a fighter pilot. Hurricane Chyren. Yeah. Hurricane Jesus Christ. Save that one for last.
  • Hurricane Argh. Right on. Bad storm that catches everyone by surprise. Hurricane Medusa. One big m*ther of a storm. Hurricane Sexyrobot. That's not a storm, it's a Japanese superhero with big boots. Hurricane PeteBest. Not a storm either, more like a bar or a type of sock or something.
  • Hurricane Jesus Christ. Save that one for last. Can of soda: $0.55 New keyboard: $12.99 Awesome post: priceless
  • Wittiness abounds.
  • "Why, now, blow wind, swell billow and swim bark! The storm is up and all is on the hazard!" from Julius Caesar by that English guy Bill Shakesbooty or something...
  • Chyren, I have no evidence of global warming yay or nay. However the seasons might change this year; I'll wait and see. Bone, I hope you and yours are well through this storm. My best to you.
  • Also, I'm with Rocket88 on the scary pictures. They're very startling. Please abstain.
  • Wilma the Capacitor Energetically speaking, the vortex that forms in these storms is also a natural particle accelerator, and a massive capacitor bank. As the harmonic circuit develops, it resonates acoustically and functions as a capacitor, extracting the heat from the storm and transmitting it away. Without this electrical circuit, the storm would fail almost instantly due to the accumulation of heat from condensation of water. at least it's not the flux capacitor