July 28, 2005

• This would be good news. But where would all those Americans send their spare terrorist dollars?
• I was reading a little about this before. Seems oh so contrived and I just thought it was a little strange that Kelly's release was predicated on there being an announcement. PR exercise of the first order. But I suppose it's a good thing. I'm only hesitant because I don't live in Belfast and don't have a colonial power on my front doorstep.
• I really do hope this is a major step towards getting the gun out of Irish politics, though it seems destined to be met with scepticism from the majority of Unionists. I'm sure most Monkeys will have read or heard about this from their usual news sources, but I do highly recommend Slugger O'Toole as a great source of information on all aspects of Northern Irish politics - one of the few sites on the web where you get civil debate between Unionists, Nationalists and those of other other political views.
• Anything short of actual disbandment is too little, too late. A while ago a moderate concession might have saved Trimble and the whole process: now, it's hard to see this as anything but a hypocritical attempt to extract more concessions from HMG. Hypocritical, but not unrealistic: the government's desire to concede seems to have reached an almost comical pitch - releasing people because the IRA might be about to say something. Without Unionist participation, this process will eventually run up against the uncomfortable and inconvenient fact that the Unionists are still the majority and still determined to have self-determination. I'm not optimistic.
• I see there's to be a Sinn Fein press conference at 4 pm BST, so the announcement seems on. On disbandment Plegmund I noted those references to former volunteers forming 'Republican Old Boys Clubs', but I'm sure that would hardly convince the Unionist side that the IRA couldn't reappear fully fledged at any time. Especially not since they have the 27 million quid from the Northern Bank job to replace any decommissioned arms.
• Christ, how many times have the IRA disbanded and reformed in the last hundred years?
• Two or three, I think. "The leadership of Óglaigh na hÉireann has formally ordered an end to the armed campaign. This will take effect from 4pm this afternoon. All IRA units have been ordered to dump arms. All volunteers have been instructed to assist the development of purely political and democratic programmes through exclusively peaceful means. Volunteers must not engage in any other activities whatsoever..."
• i think this is a welcome move and i'm optimistic about the peace process. i really don't think it's up to the ira or sinn fein to "save david trimble". moreover, "unionists who want self-determination" do not make up the majority of northern irish voters. the unionist parties command at best 45% of votes and within that there's a wide range of opinions on self-determination. the biggest problem i see now is that northern ireland has to deal with armed gangs on both sides of the conflict who no longer have a political organizing principle but only a criminal one.
• Amen to that about the criminal gangs rory - I was reading about the clashes between the UVF and LVF supporters just the other day, not to mention the drug dealing and punishment beatings and the rest. I too welcome this as a step forward, though maybe not as optimistic about the short term prospects for the peace process. I think Plegmund's right about the need for Unionist participation and the DUP don't look likely to sit down with Sinn Fein in the forseeable future. Their rise and the recent stronger showing of SF amongst nationalists (even with the McCartney murder) points to an entrenching of positions for many and that looks set to dominate for some time. Plenty of local reaction to the statement on Ulster TV's site.
• Well, roryk, the 2005 Parliamentary election results gave the DUP 33.7% of the vote and the UUP 17.7%: 51.4% in all for Unionist parties. But what if it were 20%? Would that mean they could properly and safely be ignored? On 'self-determination' you may have thought I was talking about independence (?); for a unionist self-determination surely just means continuation of the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - I don't think there's a wide range of opinions on that within Unionism. No, it wasn't up to the IRA to save Trimble, but it was up to them to save the process if they actually wanted co-operation to work. Now, I'm not altogether sure there's any process to save - I hope I'm wrong.
• Incidentally, Abiezer, didn't the Northern Bank withdraw all its banknotes and reissue different ones, making the raid the 'biggest theft of waste paper in history'?
• plegmund, i wasn't suggesting that the unionists should be ignored, i was trying to make the point that they do not represent a majority viewpoint in northern ireland. based on the 2005 westminster elections, i stand corrected, although i would argue that these results represent a spike in support for the dup (and that the council election results are more representative). on "self-determination" i thought you were referring to unionists' ability to decide their own future, notwithstanding the need to take other views into account. within the broad ambition to maintain a union with great britain, you will find a wide range of opinions among unionists. one of the biggest differences you'll find concerns devolution and the powers of the assembly. other differences will concern the european union, relationships with the dublin government, and so on. from what i have seen, the uup engaged wholeheartedly with the peace process and the establishment of the assembly. the dup engaged very reluctantly and actively sought a reason to disengage. in my opinion, the dup is fundamentally sectarian - it loses its very reason for being when conflicts are resolved.
• That Slugger O'Toole site is great. Calm, rational, informed -- an oasis given the fury surrounding this issue.
• Not sure on that Pleggers - this statement from the bank confirms they're replacing their notes on police advice. There's a Wikipedia article on the raid too, but nothing on this issue.
• Fair enough, roryk - it's the new strength of the DUP which largely provokes my pessimism.
• the banknotes:

  Mr Price confirmed that the bank had serial numbers for £16.5m of new Northern Bank notes. However, the other £10m consisted of £5.5m in used Northern Bank notes and £4.5m in mixed notes from other banks which could not be traced.

• gah... here it is
• Christian behaviour
• mo mowlam, to my mind the best person to fill the difficult role of northern ireland secretary, has passed away. ar dheis dé go raibh a hanam (may she rest in peace).