January 20, 2004

• I think that Kerry better enjoy this while he's got it, because he's not going to get the nomination. My money's on Edwards and Clark. Kerry worked his ass off wooing Iowa, but that's not going to fly with the rest of the country who will hold his Washington insider status against him. The anger isn't just aimed at Bush; it's aimed at the Democrats who rolled over and let Bush get away with all of this stuff.
• Josh Marshall wrote this at a Dean speech in New Hampshire. This was the event I was most interested in seeing today. I wanted to see if Dean --- and just as much his supporters --- could take a punch. Last night was one helluva punch. Can he and his supporters maintain their energy and organization? Will they lose morale? The flip side of bringing in new blood is that they may not have a lot of campaign experience. They may not be able to keep up their focus when things get rough. Just think what it was like to keep working away for Kerry six weeks ago ... (Now Joe Trippi is standing next to me. A quick look. Now he
• Ask Paul Tsongas how important winning the Iowa Caucus really is.
• Shoot, maybe it was Harkin? My point, regardless, was that Clinton came in third.
• Is it just me or did the audio clip of Dean's speech after Iowa remind you of Steve Ballmer's "Monkeydance" speech? Howard Dean steps in as new frontman for Van Halen. Film at 11. TrunkMonkeyCockPunch
• I have no idea how the election is going to go, but I think the way this post is worded is an example of why the Democractic race is so scary. There's doom and gloom everywhere we turn. "Dean is mad all the time. He's unelectable." Democrats are fighting each other rather than the GOP. It's like collectively, liberals are afraid of success. If everyone says that losing Iowa is the end of a campaign, then it will be. Two things need to happen if there's any hope to balance the power in this country: 1) Democratic party in-fighting has got to stop 2) Democrats need to focus on regaining a majority in Congress just as much if not more than winning the White House.
• I am looking at it from the horse race standpoint. It's not infighting. Dean is in trouble now. Clark is running close to even with him nationally. Kerry won Iowa. Another insurgent candidate (John McCain) lost South Carolina in 2000. Having TV pundits say that Dean is the frontrunner and winning the nomination is two different things. Also, this is an election year. I think there is nothing wrong with Democrats debating the merits of candidates. To say someone is not a good Democrat for not liking candidate A is like Republicans calling people unpatriotic for a disagreement against a Bush administration policy. That's silly and unpatriotic. The Bill of Rights states that it is a citizen's duty to question government.
• Hasn't it historically been the case that the Iowa winner (with the exception of Carter) hasn't gotten the nomination?
• I wasn't trying to imply that you were in-fighting I just meant in general. I seriously doubt that there would be nine republicans sniping at each other for the nomination if the position of the parties were reversed. There's more cohesion in the GOP is all I meant. And I certainly wasn't trying to imply that discussing the different candiates was a bad thing. I think the different candidates making sure that none of them is electable is the problem. My point was that calling the end of a campaign (which you did do) at this point is premature and counter-productive.
• lemme go out on a limb and predict: bush wins, landslide.
• I don't understand how America can drag its election out for a bloody year. Britain might be a rubbish shit hole, but at least our election only takes up 3 weeks of our lives once every 5 years. (That sounds unnecessarily bitter. Sorry. But still...)
• There are some indicators to say that Dean is in trouble. First, the endorements (Gore, Bradley, unions) have seemed to have meant nothing. Pandagon So it's not that union households were unimportant, it's that they didn't vote for the candidates who had the union endorsements. This is back to my feeling that the big story of Iowa is that every single endorsement failed, from the endorsements in name only (Bradley and Gore) to those in local prominence and familiarity (Harkin) to those that should have delivered manpower, organization, money and political experience (Unions, but SEIU and AFCSME in particular). For some reason, the unions just did not show the unity that makes them such a potent political force. I don't see why that would have happened, I would have expected that the negative attacks against the candidate they supported would have led them to close ranks, but instead, it blew them wide open. Calpundit Apparently Dennis Kucinich has told his supporters that if they don't reach the 15% minimum he wants them to support John Edwards as their second choice. Since Kucinich is likely to miss the 15% mark in virtually every caucus, this is likely to give Edwards a solid 2-3% boost. Poll after poll I have seen is thatDean can't attract people outside of his base. People just aren't warming to him. Second, even a liberal candidate like Kucinich is throwing his support Edwards way. If anyone was going to support Dean it would of been him.
• Dng: I whole-heartedly agree. Of course, last time I experienced the whole three week phenomenon, I got Ahnold and his Plo Chops, so maybe that's too rash on my part.
• Come Super Tuesday, it's: --Clark --Edwards --Dean And a Clark/ Clinton ticket come convention time.
• I don't understand how America can drag its election out We supersized it. Such a value!
• It's awfully early to make any predictions. That being said: I doubt we will see a Clark/Clinton ticket. Hillary Clinton is sitting this one out and looking at 2008, or 2012 if the Democrats manage to beat Bush in November. And I doubt she'd play second fiddle. When she runs, she'll go for the top spot. I would guess that either Clark or Edwards will wind up somewhere on the ticket. Edwards seems to be Vice President material straight from Central Casting. I honestly don't particularly care which Democrat winds up on the ticket, despite the giant political Magic 8-ball telling me I should support Kucinich (agree with the politics, find the man utterly unappealing.) I just want someone who can beat Bush. The question is, can the Democrats find the candidate who can get the message out?
• Okay, there's something I've been wondering as a foreigner looking in... Is there actually any chance that anyone can beat Bush? I haven't read anything that's said anything either way. For the love of God someone please say yes.
• Caucus Punch. Sorry, but someone had to say it.
• YES! Don't believe that hype BBF.
• I think we're missing the fact that Dean still has more chedder in his barrel than the rest of the candidates, enough to not worry about his kitty through NH, and maybe even SC. Combined with his very committed base who, so long as he keeps placing in the top 3 in primaries, will keep donating and he's got major staying power. Plus, I think Dean feels and works better when he's the underdog. I think Dean, Kerry, Clark, and Edwards will go neck and neck until Super Tuesday. The only thing Iowa changed for me is now I think Edwards has a chance.
• side note: on Dr. Dean's ENTHUSIASTIC!!!!!!!! Iowa speech, did anyone else think he was drunk? And did that make anyone else want to vote for him more?
• oh and for DNG and the rest of you out in the commonwealth, you've got it wrong. We start thinking about the coming election as soon as the previous one ends, and occasionaly during it as well. Now go put on a wig.
• Now go put on a wig. ?
• powdered wig, wolof. I assume. Look, take Kerry, Dean, Clark, Kucinich, hell even the Reverend (ESPECIALLY the Reverend) and let them debate B-2 on live television for an hour. Does anyone SERIOUSLY think Bush can argue with ANY of these guys? Or, you know what, forget that; that even after "his people" write him all his great material, that he'll be able to deliver it? The man has charisma, but no stage presence. He's like a place holder. Everyone talked about what a great job he did after September 11th. Know what? I was downtown; I watched the buildings come down; I waited all day to give blood and was sent away... because they didn't need any blood, because there weren't any survivors. I came home mildly shocked and turned on the TV to watch the President's address... and the idiot sat staring at the camera for twenty seconds before he started. Apparently he wasn't sure if he was on or not. No one ever commented on it. His speechifying to follow was insipid, foolish and "Circle-th'-wagons" threatening and every action he's taken since merely reinforces a schoolyard bully's attitude. America is cruisin' for a bruisin' and we're too goddamn historically illiterate to see the signs. Step one? I want him out. I'll take Count Chocula instead if I have to, but I want him OUT.
• What about Boo Berry? Surely a loveable ghost would make a better President than an evil hereditary noble.
• What was up with the SOTU. He talked about supporting community colleges and steroids in sports. WTF? This administration can not discuss anything of substance. Cheney and Ashcroft speak around the U.S. and no press are allowed. These guys are scared. Unfortunately, so are the Democrats.
• Amen, forks. I'd like to see Kucinich win (imho he is intelligent, yet principled and passionate, plus I like how liberal he is), but Kerry or Dean would suffice. Edwards gets on my nerves because he has way too much charisma and his campaign speeches are a bunch of simplistic rhetoric about how the bad guys and the good guys. ("We have two americas! two health systems, two tax systems..." two ears, two hands... enough already) Plus, his 'upbeat, positive' campaign for some reason always mentions how all the other candidates are not so upbeat and positive.
• This administration can not discuss anything of substance. Um, how about a trip to Mars?
• Hell, I'd even take Count Chocula as president at this point. Does he really, really, really think that the way to make this country great is to screw the middle class and the poor? Because he's doing that in every possible way. How are people supposed to save money for health care if they aren't making any damned money in the first place? You really want to make an impressive tax cut that will help Americans? Let us deduct our fucking rent and mortgage principal. Yeah, we all get tax breaks; the only difference is that the rich have plenty of money left after they've paid all their taxes and aren't living from paycheck to paycheck like many of us, struggling to pay off debt and having to decide which bills NOT to pay this month. What really, really pissed me off, is that the democrats were sitting there and taking it. You don't let someone stand up and alienate the civil rights of entire group of America's citizens by preaching the value of "marriage"...without a proper boo. Were they waiting for a permission slip? 'Cause if they were they clearly weren't listening: We don't need permission slips, because we're Americans! We can wage war on anyone at any time! No asking required! Just bomb! Pelosi and Daschle's polite little response was symptomatic of the disgust I have for the entire Democratic party who has rolled over and let our country be overtaken by an administration of corporate whores. Where is the outrage? Whew. What's for dinner?
• Um. Sorry. I forgot to take out my Howard Dean angry eyes.
• I've gotta ask, cos I've been watching FAR too much West Wing (especially for someone who doesn't live in America).... What the hell is a caucus? Over here, at least, "the caucus" is the inner circle of a particular political party (DIEBEATTIEDIE!) but.. other than that, I got nuttin'. And I'd really like to know what Jeb Bartlett is talkin' about ;)
• coriolisdave: Caucus Punch Essentially they lock a bunch of people in a room and count hands. Guy with the most hands, wins. No secret ballot, just a big group of people raising their hands when they call out a candidate's name.
• Okay.. thanks for that. I guess I can see the point, but makes me realise what half the pro-republicans here in Oz are on about when they state "no popularly elected president!!". Makes a LOT of sense.
• Wow.
• I (heart) CNN. I really, really do.
• Good pic, but I once got stuck in a hotel room for three weeks with CNN as the only English-language channel. I learned to loathe it pretty thoroughly.
• Here is my official prediction. A brokered Democratic convention. 1. Final Dem ticket to be Edwards/Kerry. 2. Edwards/Kerry wins 51%-47% nationally and wins election. Caveat: If the remote happens, i.e. Cheney health issues force him out, then the Bush/(Condelezza) Rice ticket wins 54%-44% over Edwards/Kerry. Trust me, I know of the future.
• Scott: Will we ever send a man to Mars? Will we ever find weapons of mass destruction-related program activities? What are next week's Powerball numbers? Do monkeys overcome humans to rule Earth?
• Dr. Zira: 1. Not on a return trip. 2. In Iraq? No more than what the UN found. Nuclear technology and expertise from Pakistan in Iran, North Korea, and among Al Qaeda? Unfortunately yes. 3. You think I am going to tell you? Let's just say one of the numbers is 11. 4. No. But the ice age will dramatically thin the already teetering human race after the upcoming monkeypox-to-human pandemic lab disaster. Oh, and the Howard Dean angry eyes cracked me up, thanks for that.
• A deduction for rent and morgage payments would be a really good idea (and I think done for income tax in other countries), but taxes aren't really the reasons that working class and middle class Americans are struggling. It's the bloody private health care. Did you (ie those south of the 49th parallel) realise that Americans pay just as much income tax as Canadians*, and still don't get healthcare out of it? Millions of people pay thousands of dollars a year just so they won't be bankrupted for seeing a doctor. I think this is the number one reason I don't really want to work in the US after I graduate - I like the people, but the health insurance companies frighten me. Oh, yeah, and raising the minimum wage above 1980s levels would help too. And lowering not just unemployment, but the rampant underemployment - people without enough hours, without enough per hour to live, etc. Actually, I'm paying American income tax right now on my stipend, without any deductions other than a moderate personal deduction (couple thousand less than an American student would have). Fortunately, it's all taken off the top - I just live without expecting that money, and if I have any refund, it's a pleasant surprise. But if I could vote, I would vote to pay more tax if it would bring universal healthcare. It would be money well spent. *Sorry, I would cite proof, but I read about this a year ago in the Globe and Mail, and they charge for archived articles.
• Coming a little late to the conversation, but anyhow... Dean's gone. That speech. The little psychotic yelp at the end. For a Brit like me, all horribly reminiscent of Neil Kinnock losing the 1992 election at the Sheffield Rally. (I know it wasn't just Kinnock going mad in Sheffield that lost it for us - the polls were swinging away before that night - but it's just too painful a memory to not have nightmarish superstitions about left-wing politicians screeching like banshees in bad ties. Feral caterwauling just ain't good for their perception amongst the general populace.) Oh, and having listened to Bush SOTU speech last night, while I wouldn't dream of saying that he's a complete wanker, he's certainly involved in complete wank-related program activities. That speech was the most offensive collection of platitudes, schmaltz, truisms, weasel words and an astonishing number of outright, bare-faced lies I've ever heard coming from the mouth of someone who's got the power to blow up the world. Oh please please our American cousins and friends won't somebody anybody stop him stop him stop him now before it's all too late and we're forced to live underground, dosing ourselves up on psychotropic substances and shouting boosh boosh boosh boosh boosh boosh boosh boosh bippy-bippy boosh boosh over and over until we're deaf to pretend to ourselves that it isn't happening? Please? We gave you the Beatles and Benny Hill and stuff - that's gotta be worth something, surely?
• We gave you the Beatles and Benny Hill and stuff Great God, man-- stop already! We still have some hotheads upset about y'all burning the U.S. White House in 1814. Get them too worked up, and they'll travel to Britain and stand dully around your tourist attractions, displaying their dead-white cottage-cheese thighs in inappropriate shorts in what might be taken by your own hotheads as an act of aesthetic provocation. Please, sir, I beg you!
• As for Mars, it wasn't even mentioned in the SOTU address. The administration doesn't plan to raise NASA's budget. Bush can mention steroids, but not Mars in the SOTU. Explain that to me.
• dead-white cottage-cheese thighs in inappropriate shorts You wouldn't. You wouldn't dare. Surely you know what the consequences would be? We would be forced to become very snooty and superior indeed. We would have no choice but to send our best people over to the colonies (we will start calling you "the colonies" again, and won't care if Australia gets caught in the cross-fire) to tell you that your beer is rubbish. There will be no option other than to complain that all your banknotes look alike, and to wonder aloud why you can't get crumpets, devonshire cream or a decent cup of tea. We may even - reluctantly, but with steadfast courage - tell you that you drive on the wrong side of the road. Britain will never seek a permission slip to be a little bit snide about people we used to rule and who now beat us at sport. Be warned.
• Dear God. They've launched Britney. I am so, so sorry.
• Noooooooooooooooooooo....! Right men. They've asked for it. Deploy the miserable bastards. And may god have mercy on us all.
• [Opposing forces collide and annihilate one another over Greenland] [Greenland thereby rendered uninhabitable for 10,000 years not that it was inhabitable before, mind you] [Rest of world celebrates new era of tranquility]
• The world would be a much less depressing place if only that were true. Quick, men, don the tiny shorts!
• You guys are silly.
• what's all this then?
• Happy Days Reunion: The Fonz meets HRH, says "Heeey."
• As for Mars, it wasn't even mentioned in the SOTU address. Yeah, so much for my comment upthread. Astonishing, no? Mars is so last Thursday.
• You fools! LOOK AT WHAT YOU'VE DONE! Oh well.. perhaps we can use this hubbub to quietly nick the RWC back while England aren't looking.....
• Why do people think Rice will be on the ticket. This is like people thinking that Hillary Clinton will run for VP. What is this based on? Cheney is the unstoppable force in the White House. I don't see Bush getting into a nasty smackdown with him to take him off the ticket. As for Clinton, no one cares about her except Republicans. She adds nothing to the ticket. She would probably do more harm than good.
• America: We promise to spare the landed gentry in return for cash, and Canada. You Brits still control Canada right? As for Dean, I'll miss him. I wish Kucinich was about three feet taller. Appearance is all these days.
• I think the replacement for Cheney is assuming that (crosses fingers) might drop dead of a heart attack or die in a horrible helicopter accident along with karl rove, donald rumsfeld, and john ashcroft, sigh, one can only dream. Why Condi Rice would be picked is a complete mystery to me. Colin Powell would be a better choice if the Bush Admin wanted to pull a "look look we care about you people!"
• Not sure how to follow up on this thread two years later... Um, uh, did I mention that the last thread was a thing of beauty?
• Vote for Bush? Brilliant.