November 11, 2004

This Link has been Making the Rounds It's shown as evidence of a grand conspiracy in certain Florida counties to mess around with the vote. However, by simply looking at past elections 1996 and 2000, it's easy to see that despite the difference between party registration and actual voting patterns, it's not quite that big of a difference. *NOTE - WHEN CLICKING ON THESE LINKS, SELECT OFFICE - US PRESIDENT, THEN ON "PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES" for county results - sorry for the extra work, can't get directly to the proper page*

Look at Calhoun County, for example. 2004: 11.9%dem, 82.4% dem, voted 3,780-2,116 for Bush. (64.1% republican) I'm assuming they didn't have some mass migration of party registrations since 1996... 2000: 2,873 to 2,155 for Bush. (57.1% republican) 1996: 1,794 to 1,717 for Clinton. (48.9% republican). Although there has been a definite push towards Republican voting, it is nowhere near the outrage it would appear to be on first glance.

posted by waitingtoderail 20 years ago
  • Whoops - I meant that 2004 registrations for Calhoun County were 11.9% REPUBLICAN and 82.4% dems...
  • Yes, clearly the Democrat's evil plans are working really well. They are winning by losing! It's sheer genius!
  • Not to mention that a lot of Republicans register as Democrats to be able to vote in Democratic primaries.
  • I think you're missing the point of the link. It shows that the results from the optical scan counties differ significantly from the results in the touch-screen counties. It does not in any way imply that differences between party registration and voting pattern indicate fraud. Touch Screens: 15 large counties, with more voters than expected (which is why both dems and repubs show gains over expected). Democrats: average +26% votes over expected, ranging from -28.9% in Nassau County to +51% in Marin County. Republicans: average +29% votes over expected, ranging from +8.8% in Martin County to +51.2% in Hillsborough County. Optical Scanners: 52 large counties, with more voters than expected. Democrats: average +1% votes over expected, ranging from -70.0% in Holmes County, to + 37.6% in Monroe County. Republicans: average +46% votes over expectd, ranging from +25.2% in Flagler County, to +712.3% in Liberty County. Now, you might be thinking, a gain of over 700%? That must be error from a small sample. Indeed, Liberty County had 3021 voters, which puts it close to the cutoff for a 'large' county. But looking at counties with over 10,000 voters, repubs showed +178.7% in Jackson County, at over 20,000 voters, repubs showed +165.7% in Gasdsen County, +110.6% in Polk with over 30,000 voters, +57.7% in Osceola County with over 60,000 voters, etc. These results are markedly different than the results from the touch-screen counties. These results indicate a need to investigate the optical scanner results, because by a plethora of statistical measures, they look rigged.
  • I don't disagree, and I didn't miss the point, I'm just trying to point out that it will be more difficult to prove fraud than just looking at one set of numbers.
  • I'm not saying that the first link is gospel truth. Just that people not voting along party lines and voting machines that don't collect votes properly (or allow for vote-total changes later) are two different issues, and shouldn't be confused. That said, I'm glad that people are looking at both issues. The more transparency in the system, the better.
  • I agree - exactly what I was trying to say, but you said it a lot better. Merci buckets.