October 29, 2004

• Where is this data coming from? Most people haven't even voted yet.
• Kerry 295 (49.4%) - Bush 243 (49.5%)
• I didn't participate in the MeFi prediction because predicting (nearly) exact numbers seems to me to be more whimsical than informative. In my view, the actual result (relative to the general result) will be pretty random. But it looks to me the same today as it has for the last eight months: moderate win for Kerry in the popular election (I've been saying something like 53% to 47%), and a much bigger win in the electoral college, with Kerry getting most of the swing states and at least one of the really big ones. If we're lucky, the margin will be large enough to short-circuit the Republicans' plans to contest a Kerry win. I do increasingly fear a replay of 2000, except much worse.
• I think the post-election story will be: a) How the polling could have been so wrong (hint: cellular phones) b) How this was the first election tipped by young and "non-likely" voters (Gallup polling is particularly wacked). I'll also put forth a controversial assertion: If Bush is polling at under 49% in a state, he has already lost REGARDLESS of Kerry's poll numbers. Why? 1) Outside of possibly Florida, no state winner will have less than 49.5 margin this year because Nader is not the factor he was in 2000. 2) Polls take into account only "likely voters" and I think this year, with the military draft being a big fear of many young people, I think "non-likely voters" will vote in large numbers and tip for Kerry at least 3-1. They are also the highest demographic with those pesky cell phones (not reflected in polls). If you want to watch a bellweather of my theory Tuesday night, I suggest you watch West Virginia. Bush is polling at 46-49% there and few outside of Bill Clinton think Kerry has a chance there. If Bush gets a scare or loses then watch out. Bush could lose ALL of the following "battleground" states (Bush's poll numbers in parenthesis): Pennsylvania (48%), Iowa (45-48%), Colorado (46-48%), Michigan (43-47%), Wisconsin (46-47%), New Mexico (46-49%), New Jersey (39-44), Ohio (44-48%), Hawaii (43-45%), and Minnesota (41-42%). Though I don't think it is certain, I will give Bush: Florida (51%), Nevada (51%), Arkansas (48-52%) and Missouri (48-52%). I think the MOST that Bush can hope for is 245 Electoral Votes and I see Ohio as the lynch-pin. Bush MUST have Florida, but for Kerry it would be merely frosting. Electoral College: Kerry 293, Bush 245 Popular vote: Kerry 52% Bush 47%
• Yep. Mercurious is right. But I doubt there will be a "why were the polls wrong?" story. There wasn't in 2000. I strongly suspect that many people will be surprised by a Kerry win and will believe that "something changed at the last minute". The explosives story, or something. Really, though, this race has been pretty much stable for months, with a likely Kerry win. It really is interesting, though, how many people are unaware of this and expect a Bush win.
• Jesus god, I hope you're right. I'm a pessimist and I think Bush will win by a hair, and the ugliness of post-election protests and lawsuits will eclipse 2000.
• I think Bush is going to take the NM, FL, WV, and maybe even IA but I still think Kerry's going to win by carrying the northern mid-west states like MI, WI, and MN as well as OH and PA. I'll say 257 Bush and 281 Kerry. As for the popular vote I think it's going to be damn close with no more than a 3-4% difference.
• One interesting effect of all the polls showing Bush leading all along is to possibly lull some Bush supporters into some complacency (it is in the bag) while creating an extra urgency for Kerry supporters.
• A clear popular vote loss for Bush, amended and adjusted into a litigation-based victory with tactics up to and including at least one death by gunplay, probably of some low-level poll worker for the Dems.
• I don't understand where that LA Times Interactive thingymajigger gets by deciding which states are "up for grabs" or are they just doing that based on the magical "swing states" carried by news organizations? I bring this up because I live in VA and they gave it to Bush automatically with a 50% to 44% for Kerry. Yet Ohio has the exact same numbers and they consider it a state that is up for grabs. How is 50/44 a swing state? (Disclaimer: I don't believe poll data to be a true reflection of the likelihood of voting based on aforementioned cell phones, young voters, yadadad. Yet if you do follow the polls it should be consistent right?)
• And by "Ohio has the exact same numbers" I of course meant in reverse for Kerry 50/44.....preview....yeah
• I think mecurious is right. I might go so far as to say that Kerry may even take Arkansas, and I'm less sanguine about Kerry taking Ohio, but other than that it's right on the mark. Elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent, and at this point historically, either the incumbent is *clearly* ahead, or the incumbent loses the race. Undecided votes are more likely to break for the challenger. The other tidbits of conventional wisdom: the taller candidate wins 80% of the time, and the candidate with the longer last name is also more likely to win. Also, the Democrats have a lot more fire in the belly in 2004 than they did in 2000. Before this administration, I voted pretty consistently Democrat (occasionally veering Green in local elections) and argued politics with the Republican relatives, but that was as far as my political involvement went. This year, I have pulled out my checkbook to give money to the ACLU, to John Kerry, to the DNC, and to Stephanie Herseth (and I don't live in North Dakota.) Two weeks ago I spent the weekend in Albuquerque walking precincts volunteering for the Kerry campaign (I don't live in New Mexico either.) I wonder how many other people have been moved to get involved for the first time this election, they same way I have.
• The Diebold Factor will allow Bush to sweep swing states (and the electoral vote) while losing the popular vote (again). Numbers are meaningless in a zero-sum game. *sigh*
• genial, Might the "swing state" label be determined by the stability of the (small) lead in your state? I believe that the Ohio numbers have been all over the place the past few weeks...
• Bush 49.2% - 270 Kerry 49.3% - 268 Nader 0.7% - 0 Others 0.2% - 0 Jon Stewart as write-in candidate 0.6% - 0 Daily Show viewers tip balance in key swing states towards Bush, Stewart becomes a pariah and, wracked with guilt, quits television. Goes on to lecture in journalism at NYU, becoming first holder of the Tucker Carlson Memorial Chair of Journalistic Ethics.
• it looks to me the same today as it has for the last eight months: moderate win for Kerry in the popular election (I've been saying something like 53% to 47%) Really, though, this race has been pretty much stable for months, with a likely Kerry win. Can you elaborate? The electoral college is too complex to predict, IMHO. I'm more interested in why you think Kerry will win the popular vote.
• I'm seeing it through calimehtar's eyes right now - Bush will win, barely, is my best guess. Here's my prediction: Bush wins 277-261. Kerry takes Hawaii, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey. BUT Bush takes Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Arizona, West Virginia, and Arkansas.
• Kerry 320 EV, 52% Bush 218 EV, 46% Nader 1% Others 1% I cant see any serious evidence of Bush winning right now- he has still not topped 50% in any serious poll, it's too late for any surprise. Even if the polls were accurate he'd been in deep trouble. Last time the pre-election polls showed Bush beating Gore in the popular vote by 2-6%. Gore won by 0.5%. Of course Bush can win if he takes Fla. and Ohio, but Kerry only needs one and could potentially win without either.
• Does anyone have any thoughts on the "always vote for the winner" school of thought? In the past I've worked with some real dumbasses that preferred to vote for the "winner", lest they throw their vote away. Is this common? I worry that these misleading polls may throw the election.
• Very disturbingly, I had a dream about the election result the other night. No idea why, I'm not even American, and honestly my dreams are generally much more exciting than this, but there you go. While talking about one's dreams is clearly the height of self-indulgence, I'm going to post this here just in case I happen to have actually dreamed it right, at which point I will claim my Cassandra Award and spend the rest of my life in gibbering terror. Or get a cable TV show, either way. Kerry wins the popular vote by 51%, Bush wins the electoral colleges, and the Democrats take the Senate by one seat. I really hope I got a bit of that wrong.
• Bush: 279 Kerry: 259 Bush's keys to victory are the battleground states of Florida and Ohio. Although I hope I'm dead wrong. As a sacrifice to the Election Gods, I'm going to quit smoking (after 17 stupid years) on Election Day. The Gods can't be that cruel to me, can they? Huh? Can they?? If they are that cruel, I may have to tie myself to a cot in the basement and board up all the windows on Wednesday.
• I'm in Texas. It's impossible not to be pessimistic. I am not going to want to deal with my coworkers at all for a week whatever happens. They are going to be insufferable.
• I'm feeling good about the airtime the KSTP video is getting, plus the early voter turnout, and I think the undecideds will break two to one for Kerry ...I'm going with Kerry 323, Bush 215.
• Never mind; I see the election's been cancelled.
• I'm worried about Diebold handing over the election. Will there be enough non-electronic voting in swing states to show a statistical difference in the case of foul play? Or is every last bit of voting going to be done on machines in places like Ohio? Can somebody please tell me that some ABB group has this covered, so I can get a decent night's sleep?
• My opinion on Diebold related or similar election fraud is that I strongly believe that in the long run it couldn't be kept secret and, thus, would be an enormous political disaster for the Republicans were Bush to "win" this election as a result of it. I don't worry about it so much for that reason. I am a little worried by the massive vote discouragement and thuggish tactics the Republicans are using and will use on Nov. 2nd. As a matter of fact, since I live in a swing state just today I've been thinking about hanging out at one of the local polling places as an "observer" to try to monitor (or discourage) the tactics the Repubs are planning.
• Large Douche 49.5% Turd Sandwich 49.5% Others 1% Supreme Court decides again
• Kerry. By...a lot. There's a lot of energy to vote this year, but with the Democrats it's a call to action. With the Republicans, it's a call to complain. Anyone who seriously thinks that Bush is chosen by God to lead us to victory over all the heathen terrorists (or whatever they believe that makes them like Bush) either voted for Bush last election or feels that he will obviously win, so won't bother. On the other hand, the Democrats all fear Bush's second term with a pants-wetting intensity, and will be crawling over themselves to get to the polls. The undecideds will vote 1.5:1 or better towards Kerry, just because that's what they do. There'll be news stories the day of the election of voter fraud and trying to keep people away from the vote, which will cause people to vote for whichever side is most visibly causing troubles. If we don't hear at least 3 separate accounts, on the day, of such things, I will be terribly disappointed at the Media in a way completely different from the way I am currently disappointed in the Media. And I will do my personal best to make sure Bush loses Virginia. It's close as it is, and I want all those foolish pollsters to realize that they just don't have any idea what they're doing when they mis-predict my state.
• I hope, I hope, I hope that Anyone-But-Bush wins, but I don't have much optimism of that happening.
• 100% - me.
• Kerry loses Ohio but wins Florida: 284 Bush takes Iowa, loses other midwest battleground states: 254 /pulled out of my ass
• Bush: 268 Kerry: 266 An anxious nation watches into the wee hours of Wednesday morning to see which way the 4 votes in Hawaii are going to swing. Each candidate has 49.5% of the vote. Things are even murkier by Wednesday evening, as Oahu has sunk into the Pacific, straining from the additional weight of all the lawyers flying into to challenge the results.
• Bush 238 Kerry 300
• Small bills please
• Damn, I hope all you are right. I feel a little better about things.
• Never mind; I see the election's been cancelled. Rolypolyman-- You're too nervous. The Repubs will have things sorted out with the voting machines by the 3rd.
• Nicely said, kwyjibo, but if Hawaii is the new Florida I'll die of laughter. Or just have an annurism.
• The strife is o'er, the battleground won. There is no way Bush will win Wisconsin.
• The Onion is getting it's funny back on: What do YOU think? The Return of the Draft.
• A new mefi thread points to this analysis of individual states' poll data, which appears to back up my theory (or at least the end result) with some real analysis of the data.
• A slate article of a week ago asks why Bush has virtually stopped campaigning in Ohio. There are three possible explanations: 1) They believe their polling that they are going to win legitimately with no further effort 2) They've virtually conceded the state and are spending time and resources elsewhere 3) The fix is in and the legitimate votes no longer matter Is Ohio one of the Diebold states? The end of that article also points out a theory that Bush could lose Pennsylvania and Ohio if he wins Wisconsin and two out of three from this group: Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa. The problem with that theory is that it assumes that Bush wins three states that I think are still in play: Arkansas, West Virginia and Colorado. Colorado alone would give Kerry the election.
• Bush will not WI. Gore had maybe 20,000 for his rally at this time in 2000 ? Kerry had easily 4-5 times that. Besides, Nader got 100,000 votes in 2000. If everything else stays as it was 4 years back, and those Nader voters vote Kerry, Kerry wins handily. Frankly, I think more people - democrats specifically - are inclined to vote this year. I think the polls will be found to have been very off. I'm not so sure Kerry should worry about WI. The other states? I dunno, I don't live there. But I have the feeling it will be a big win for Kerry, nationally.
• err, not *win*. Bush will not win. Jeez.
• As a sacrifice to the Election Gods, I'm going to quit smoking (after 17 stupid years) on Election Day. I re-quit smoking about a month to six weeks ago (I didn't note the date I ran out of cigs) and made a similar deal with whatever gods are in charge of such things--i.e., if Kerry wins, I will never smoke again. Never. Not even at a party with copious amounts of liquor, which has always been my Mulligan before. However, if Bush wins, I'm buying a carton of Camel Lights the next day and smoking myself to death.
• Oh, great. That's my brand too.
• On a related note, today is five months smoke-free for me today. Just noticed it on the calendar last night. states that I think are still in play: Arkansas, West Virginia and Colorado Arkansas is evidently now in play, though it didn't always look that way. Both parties have just recently sunk a ton of money in advertising here. Looks like that "Bible: BANNED!" mailer didn't work as well as they'd hoped.
• Regardless of who wins, I'm beginning to think that 1996 will be looked back upon as the last year we had a normal, litigation-free presidential election.
• Congratulations, mct. Here in Colorado there is a ballot question that would jack up the taxes on cigarettes. Maybe that would compel me to quit. I wish we spent half the money on schools that is being poured into all this campaign crap. Quite a few friends and colleagues have voted early. I hope those ballots are kept secure. Our Republican secretary of state has already created a legal morass that threatens the integrity of the process. I'm with those here who believe that lawyers will descend, the courts will be snarled, and the election will be gamed.
• I'm with those here who believe that lawyers will descend, the courts will be snarled, and the election will be gamed. Historians may well look back at the way the Supreme Court handled the 2000 election as the beginning of the end of the fair "democratic process" in America. Nobody thought that it was perfect before, but everybody pretty much had faith that overall the system worked. By not allowing the Florida votes to be recounted, the 5 Supremes dealt what may prove to be a fatal blow to that fragile faith in the system. They thought they were stopping a cascade of recounts, but at least those recounts would have been seen by the people as their voices being heard, not preempted. America desparately needs a clear winner and no court challenges to "clear the palate" and restore some much-needed faith in the system. The illusion of a democracy must be preserved. You don't want to know what this country looks like if everybody stops drinking the kool-aid.
• mercurious - Ohio is indeed a Diebold state. And apparently has already been promised to Bush.
• I effed up the math (49+48+1 != 100) in my MeFi prediction so I'm happy for an opportunity to correct it here. Kerry     49.5  277 Bush     48.9  261 Others    1.6     0
• Another funny Onion bit on the coming recount Sample: Your dead relatives, how they'll vote and why
• Predection: Gore will trouce Bush by 20 points. I think it will end up like Australia's election: Bush will win and end up with the super majorities needed in both the House and the Senate.
• Well I'm posting all over the place! : ) Here is one guy who apparently figured it out way earlier than I did: Jimmy Breslin (his final column?). A must read.